Seems like every relevant asset or index in the world is hitting ATHs every week. BTC is consolidating around $100,000, and the best part of the bull market is upon us.
A tweet today caught my attention and reminded me of a concept I came across months ago. It was a chart of the NASDAQ, and according to the person analyzing it, the NASDAQ seems to be in a parabolic trend targeting 40,000 points. That’s pretty much a 2X from here.
BTC appears to be in a parabolic trend too, with a target that could push well over $200,000 before the trend breaks. Yet, no one’s calling or texting me about BTC at $100,000. Back in 2021, near the top, I saw all kinds of people with zero connection to crypto rushing to buy.
Now? We’re nowhere near that. Most people are still in the denial phase. But once BTC leaves $100,000 behind, and public TV along with traditional social media floods their brains with headlines like Bitcoin is the future, Gold 2.0, or State-level reserve asset, we’ll see the masses jumping on board.
The ones who do will feel like winners for having the cash to buy their share of BTC, while plebs barely manage to live paycheck to paycheck. But by then, it’ll be too late. This final phase of the raging bull market is what I call the winner’s curse, and it’s dangerous as hell.
I lived it back in 2021. A bear market was not an option for me. I was making good money blogging, I had coins in a self-custodial wallet, and life couldn’t have been better. The super cycle theory wasn’t just a theory—it was my reality.
I had every reason to believe we were in a super cycle. But in truth, we were close to the end of the bull market. Soon after, I lost all the cash I had in crypto with LUNA and watched my blogging revenue tank. I went from feeling like a winner to losing it all.
I picked myself up and kept grinding, but I learned my lesson. A bear market will follow once the raging bull gets exhausted this time too. But we’re not there yet. Sentiment right now is a mix of hope and disbelief, and no bull market ends on hope or disbelief.
We’ll need euphoria—pumping charts, pouring money, portfolios multiplying—and we’re not there yet. But it’ll happen. And when it does, very few will see it coming.
Enjoy the ride, but remember, it has an expiration date. No one knows when that is, so act accordingly.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian