Bitcoin's dominance is clearly slipping, sitting below 59% at the time of writing. My take? 62% was likely the top for this cycle. Historically, at the end of every halving year, we start seeing the onset of altcoin season.
Many in crypto mistakenly think altcoin season means coins pumping immediately. Some have even labeled the AI and meme coin rallies earlier this cycle as altcoin seasons. They’re wrong. True altcoin season begins when BTC.D starts plummeting, heading toward something like 40%. Right now, we’ve barely scratched the surface. Sure, coins like XRP and HBAR have given investors a reason to smile, but trust me—that’s nothing.
If you’ve been through previous cycles, you know how insane altcoin mania can get. We’re talking about certain coins doing 10X in just weeks—sometimes days. We’re not there yet. Not even close.
Another myth is the belief that Bitcoin peaks when altcoin season begins. That couldn’t be further from the truth. In reality, Bitcoin can continue rallying alongside altcoins, even as its dominance falls. Early in the bull market, Bitcoin leads the charge while altcoins trail. But once the market matures and risk appetite grows, the dynamic shifts drastically.
Here’s the hard part: if your portfolio isn’t diversified, you risk sitting on the sidelines while other coins moon. That’s when panic selling sets in. Weak hands dump their so-called laggards, chasing coins that are already pumped, only to watch their original picks rally right after selling.
I know this because I’ve made this mistake—not once, but two bull markets in a row. Over-trading, chasing pumps, and losing sight of the bigger picture can cost you dearly. It’s a tough lesson, but one worth learning.
The best strategy? Sit on your hands. Patience is your best friend. If you want a 10X—or even 100X—portfolio, doing nothing might be your best move. That said, don’t confuse patience with complacency. When euphoria hits, it’s time to act.
As I’ve said in previous posts: if your portfolio is starting to look screenshot-worthy, it’s probably time to take some profits. Don’t aim for the exact top. It’s almost impossible to time perfectly, so DCA’ing out is your safest bet.
The next few months will be an emotional rollercoaster, but they’ll also be the most rewarding for those who stay disciplined. This is what we’ve all been waiting for.
Bull markets don’t last forever. The key is knowing when to hold and when to take profits. Stick to your plan, don’t get caught up in the noise, and enjoy the ride. We’ve earned this moment.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian