Ah, here we go again. Sad news, a recession is imminent, likely within the next year. But wait a minute, I thought the U.S. was already in a recession, no? What exactly does it mean for an economy to be in a recession? Well, the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The GDP growth of Q1 2022 is -1.6%, and Q2 2022 is -0.6%. So we're in a recession after all. Perhaps the slight negative of GDP growth is of little concern to the majority of people, especially to those recession deniers who attempted to redefine the definition of recession on Wikipedia.
Sorry for the rant, but the next GDP report will come out at the end of this month. I'm not going to predict the GDP growth in Q3, but imagine a three consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Will the recession denier finally admit that the economy in the U.S. is a mess right now? Don't get me wrong, the U.S. and its world reserve currency are still performing significantly better than any other region on the planet.
[Source: https://www.fxpro.com/trading-tools/forex-economic-calendar]
A third quarter of negative GDP will undoubtedly be bad news for U.S. economic policymakers, bringing us one step closer to the Fed pivot.
How's this going to affect crypto and precious metals?
The correlation between cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin or huge cap) and precious metals is incredibly high, although this is likely to be short-lived. These days, you're either long USD or short USD. Everything pumps when the dollar weakens and dumps when the dollar strengthens. If the GDP growth of Q3 is negative, then surely BTC, gold, and silver will pump.
Remember, the thought process of the market participants is very simple: Negative GDP growth = recession = Fed pivot = bullish
