Hello! This post is for Splinterlands Social Media Challenge. This post is a sequel of my first post regarding the Minor Chests. Today, I will actually evaluate the rewards, using the Glint Price of it and also taking the percent in factor to analyze: Are Minor Chests worth it?
Minor Chests
In the rewards Shop, Minor Chests can be bought for 200 Glints. Out of all, Minor Chests are the most easiest to evaluate due to the fact that it only gives 1 Reward Cards, Potions and Energies.
Each chest has:
- 33% chance of getting a random Card.
- 31.999% chance of getting a Leg or Alchemy postion.
- 30% chance of getting Merits.
- 5% chance of getting 1 Energy.
- 0.001% chance of getting Jackpot.
Evaluating the Expected Value of Rewards
I will be multiplying the expected Glint value by the chance of reward, and add it together to evaluate Minor Chests.
However, because of the fact that Jackpot is almost non-existent in Minor Chests (You need to open 100,000 Minor Chests, and even than you might have none), I won't be calculating it in this post.
Also, I will be considering that Potions are used, and Guild DC is not considered.
Cards
Since Cards are so much complicated than others, we will be separately analyze it.
- 25.674% (out of 33%) chance of getting a Common Card
- 6.6% (out of 33%) chance of getting a Rare Card
- 0.66% (out of 33%) chance of getting an Epic Card
- 0.066% (out of 33%) chance of getting a Leg Card
- Each card has 0.5% chance of being Gold (around 20x Glint Value), Meaning that I would be multiplying 0.5% of the total expected Glint value by 20.
- Common Card: worth 150 Glint * 25.674% = 38.511 Glint Value Expected
- Rare Card: worth 750 Glint * 6.6% = 49.5 Glint Value Expected
- Epic Card: worth 7500 Glint * 0.66% = 49.5 Glint Value Expected
- Leg Card: worth 35000 Glint * 0.066% = 23.1 Glint Value Expected
Total = 160.611 Glint + 16.06 Glint (Gold Cards) = 176.671 Glint Value Expected
Others
Other rewards are fairly easy to calculate the expected value.
- Potions: worth 90 Glint * 31.999% = 28.7991 Glint Value Expected
- Merits: worth 100 Glint * 30% = 30 Glint Value Expected
- Energy(Diamond): worth 2200 * 5% = 110 Glint Value Expected
- Energy(Gold): worth 900 Glint * 5% = 45 Glint Value Expected
Potions: Leg potions are worth 80 Glint, and Alchemy is worth 100. we will use the average amount because the chance is equal.
Merits: Because You can get any amount of Merits from 20 to 180, we will be using the medium amount of 100.
Energy: Energy price varies between each league, so I am going to use Diamond II as the base, and also Gold II for lower leagues.
Final
If we add all the Expected Glint amount, we get a total of:
(Drum Roll please...)
345.4701 GLINT VALUE EXPECTED!
Because Batch 2 of Minor Chests cost 300 Glints, you should be getting positive results until Batch 2, unless you are extremely lucky to not pull multiple energies.
Note: If you are at lower leagues, it is actually not better to buy chests. For example, Gold II's energy cost is only 900, and that means that the expected value of Minor Chest will drop to 280.
My 100 Minor Chest opening
To end my post, I will be sharing my Minor Chest openings. The last few draws are extremely nice, so please take a look!
Disappointing 20 Batch. No Energy and only 1 Rare.
3 Energy is really better than the expected value of 1. Also 2 Rares!
Another batch with 2~ Energy! Potions are disappointing though.
Annnnnd no Energy again. Amount of energy is really important in Minor Chest, since Minor Chests are so cheap and energy is so expensive.
A Legendary Minor pull! Not only there are 3 Energies, but also 2 Common GF and most importantly, an Epic Card! This alone is almost valued at 20K Glint, which is the price of 100 Minor Chests.
Thanks!
Thanks to all the people that read this post!
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All images are used from Splinterland.
