Frequency Of Hive Tip Crimes! = FOHTC!
Intro to FOHTC!
From the "Just for Fun Department", introducing...the FOHTC! Index
FOHTC! stands for Frequency Of Hive Tip Crimes!
It's pronounced FAHT-see, rhymes with Yahtzee (just to be safe).
What is it?
FOHTC! is an economic indicator (cough, cough) of the Hive (and crypto?) markets. Are we in a bull market? Bear market? Flatline? Are things about to change? It's like the Fear & Greed Index, sorta.
How it works
It's simple, random, and very subjective and unscientific. This adds to the fun factor.
- I keep an eye out for LUV pilfering
- Pilferage gets added into the database
- It gets graphed
- When the FOHTC! goes up (more crimes), the bull is running
- When the FOHTC! goes down (few crimes), the bear is back
The premise is simple: as interest in crypto, and prices, rise, people start pilfering Hive tip tokens more. More FOHTC! crimes occur.
Case Study: LUV
I run the LUV tip/engagement token, see @LUVshares. The intent is to share something positive, some "LUV" with others, both in kindness as well as with a token. One thing I've noticed is abuse in the form of farming/pilfering. The timing of these instances has me wondering, "Does this tie in with price? With expectations of price?"
These "crimes" typically manifest in one of two ways:
- Users "ping-pong" back and forth to one another. User A gives LUV to B. B gives LUV back to A. Then A to B. Then B to A. And so on. This is fine, but when it's day after day, and there's no real engagement, it's clearly just ping-pong token giving. Pilfering.
- The worst is organized crime in the form of using alternative usernames to farm the tokens. Here, a user, maybe two or three, generate alternative Hive usernames. With these many user accounts, they give one another LUV tokens. This usually goes on for some time, maybe months. Then, the ringleader decides to draw them all in and cash out. He or she aggregates all of the LUV tokens from the many accounts into one main Hive account. Then, normally, this user unloads them all on the market. This crashes the market, almost literally to zero, and forces it to claw back to market equilibrium. This has happened three times, I believe, maybe four.
The terrible thing is that there are people, by far most people, who got their LUV tokens either as gifts from others or bought them on the market with their hard earned HIVE...only to see the price crash (before coming back).
Hive tip crimes.
Back to FOHTC!
I dug into the data. Below is the HIVE price going back to April 2022 when I started paying attention to this type of thing. Below shows five Hive tip crimes and their "severity" on a scale of 0 to 100. Numbers 1 and 5 were instances of a mass sell off after farming the token and the result being a crash of the LUV market.
Let's look at the HIVE price during that same time period and mark those FOHTC! crimes. (source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hive)
If FOHTC! actually suggests something, the question is whether FOHTC! is a leading indicator of a bull run (crime occurs prior to a bull run in anticipation). Line #4 seems to support that. Or, maybe crime #2 would mean FOHTC! is a lagging indicator of a bull run (crime occurs afterwards as a result of the run). Crimes #1, #2 and #5 seem to suggest that.
Since #1 and #5 were the biggest crimes, this chart suggests FOHTC! is a lagging indicator. However, this data is when the crime took place...this is at the end. The aggregating of the tokens had been going on for some time prior. So, the end conclusion is a bit muddled...it's "confounded" as the saying goes in scientific jargon...we thought we knew what was linked to the result, but we really don't know what factor is linked to the result.
Or, most likely, it's nothing at all and there's no correlation at all between Hive price and FOHTC!
Inspiration for FOHTC
A favorite economics measurement of mine is the Café Con Leche Index, a Bloomberg tool to measure Venezuelan inflation. It measures how much a cup of coffee with milk costs in bolivars (national fiat currency) in a shop in Caracas.
What I like is that it's an off-brand, street-level economic indicator.
FOHTC tries to do the same with Hive (and maybe crypto in general).
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-cafe-con-leche-index/?terminal=true
Thoughts?
I'd love to hear them in the Hive General community "Price and Trade" chat.
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