Greeting Splinterlanders, my hope had been this was going to be the post I planned to write about a past update and the potential addons that could be implemented to reward skilled play and improve the overall economy. Instead I am rather disappointed in the most recent chain of updates that appear to be coming to center stage. Many of you may not understand why so many people in the community are having the positions they have. Here's a quick outline of the various implements this update will bring and their short and long term outcomes. For references on previous numbers and what they mean as far as bots and their averages check here. This article is not for the faint of heart and will display an in depth look at Splinterlands, the legality of what is owned and by who, the ToS most didn't care to read and when the game itself was edited as early as A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, the long term effects of ALL of it, optics, the value of card playing passion (and how botting devalues it), bot win trade farming and it's effects, what the SPS/DEC whitepaper says and what this update means, partnerships? and lastly how all of this will effect the game down the road.

PLEASE READ THIS WHOLE POST BEFORE COMMENTING OR MAKING ANY DECISIONS WITH YOUR ASSETS. THIS POST WILL BE EDITED TO INCLUDE RESPONSES TO THE COMMENTS AND THEIR QUESTIONS BELOW, THIS IS A COMPLICATED AND NUANCED TOPIC AND THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE FROM OUTSIDE HIVE Etc. ASWELL AS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A CARD PLAYER

The Numbers: Who's Really Playing?

Why the snarky headlinge for this section? Check here.

These are accounts earning SPS, this doesn't mean they AREN'T bots but the likelihood of them being players is much higher

Accounts that are earning just DEC

as any account not earning SPS and ONLY earning DEC is either part of the small playerbase that hopped on after airdrops but before this update (a very very small percentage of accounts) or most likely a bot spun back up in anticipation for this update to maximize their position (as outlined and predicted in the post here). They never left why would they, they've just been sleeping or changing their names to less brazen things than "RALPH1899276" followed by "RALPH18765456". That doesn't mean they aren't there. NOTICE HOW SIMILAR THE NUMBERS ARE COMPARED TO THE HEYDAY OF BOTTING AND HOW VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED, BUT NOW INSTEAD OF BLEEDING DEC FROM THE ECONOMY THEY WILL BLEED GOVERNING CONTROL OF THE GAME. Additionally once stops start earning SPS across the board for battles, the only people who will bother to discern who is a bot or not WILL be a legal accountant etc. down the line (not a normal player or anyone not willing to dig for hours and hours through block transactions), but it won't get past them regardless. Having to have staked SPS to earn completely eliminates new players from receiving cards without investing to earn. You have to invest to earn, it is no longer merely play to earn. DESPITE LEGALLY NOT BEING INVESTMENT OR INVESTMENT VEHICLE ACCORDING TO TOS DESPITE BEING REFERED TO AS "AN INVESTMENT" OR "SOMETHING THE PLAYERS SHOULD INVEST IN" IN ALMOST EVERY AMA (see legal section for details on what the ToS says and what it means).

Realistically the actually player base is likely much closer to this number

Or lower, there is the distinct possibility many of these accounts are "automated" with no one actually playing at the helm now also.

After this update EVERY BOT WILL EARN SPS GOVERNANCE FROM RANKED BATTLES AND BE MORE INCENTIVIZED THAN EVER TO DO SO. Thus handing control over to botlords, which is likely the intention of the update.

Tokenomics, Whitepapers, and Governance. Oh my!

SPS: The Whitepaper tells a tale

This statement gives the implication that it would be ADDED to the pools, not REPLACING DEC ENTIRELY OR BEING A SUBSTITUTE TO DEC. If this were the case presented from the start many would have not invested in this token itself on WHICHEVER EXCHANGE. Keep in mind some people buying into this game have not nor will see hive. SPS is listed a few places at this point and this is a game on the android app store also.

Future Reward Changes: 2 steps forward 4 steps back

Focus was instrumental, it developed the gameplay in a manner to which players could earn based on quality of play and require them to rent or have cards associated with the required focus per day (incentivizing having a varied collection). Allowing focus to be acquired via grinding WITHOUT PLAYING TO A SPECIFIC "Quest" allows for bot v bot win trading to funnel the minting of rewards cards into a smaller number of hands with minimal investment and maximum exploitation. They can run matches endlessly vs each other and at great speed during times of player inactivity. Now they will also be funneling control of the game to a centralized group aswell.

Merits in Chests/Bot Guilds are Here

As some veterans of the game are aware, a massive portion of accounts that inhabit the game are in fact bots and not additional players. These bots now are able to attain merits. Due to the neccesity of having bot farms look the least conspicuous now expect (and likely thousands upon thousands already have) bot v bot win trading guilds and less brazen names as time goes on to exploit merits to their maximum potential. (Keep in mind the cards gotten from these chests can still be burned for deck or used for CP that a bot doesn't have to rent and put back to the economy. Just take it out).

Governance: By Bots for Bots

As governance is implemented and SPS is added to ranked rewards (actually no it's REPLACING DEC not "being added to the pool" as such), these MASSIVE bot v bot mining farms that drain value from everyone else and centralize it into a much smaller stratosphere. I predicted this in the previous article if there is any confusion as to why this is handing over governance.

Optics: The Way Things Look and What They Say

Certain things don't look awesome optically for SPL, this grants a different view from outside the dedicated playerbase or HIVE. Below is a list of various things that have happened (or not) with very little followup.

"Partnership" after "Partnership": Without a peep?

There has been brewing talks of alleged partnerships between Warner Music and Imagine Dragons. However, there has been no official statement from the other party online or otherwise retrievable , BUT THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS STATEMENTS FROM SPL STATING THAT AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN MADE. If deals are in negotiation and presented as concrete, that is a misrepresentation of facts. Keep in mind the other partnerships with Waka Flaka and MLS were confirmed publicly on twitter etc. after the announcement by the parties themselves, unlike these other partnerships that have "been underway" for months now. It is my guess those partnerships were merely in negotiation and presented as such (Especially considering Imagine Dragons is from a rival label and Warner is strict about their partners working with the enemy in most agreements I saw them have after I started digging).

Calling Bots "Players or Users" and Rephrasing Bots "Automation": Legal Definitions and Pubic Fourm

The legal definition of a player of a game or Esport/sport is as follows:

This means that when one PLAYER/PERSON bots 20 thousand (or whichever amount of bots/ "automation") they still count as ONE player in the playerbase and can only be used as ONE PLAYER for statistical purposes or marketing purposes. Botting numbers can't be used to inflate these statistics without potentially serious troubles down the line. Calling them "automation" doesn't help, it's still ONE player running "automated" accounts and manipulating the market. NOT 20K PLAYERS. Each time the game mentions merely "transactions", "matches played", and accidentally calls all accounts "players" it puts the developers in a vulnerable position. In the US court of law all of this is/can be considered market manipulation, regardless of what you or I think.

Muddying the Numbers: Botting Services

Amidst the market exploitation of the bot v bot win trading farms there are emerging botting services that don't win trade (are open source and verifiable etc etc.). Despite their best intentions their mere existence will be used to skew statistics. With phrases like "Well look at X botting service, they are transparent and for the players". The issue here is THESE TRANSPARENT OPEN SOURCE BOTTING SERVICES ARE NOT AN OFFICIAL PART OF THE GAME AND ANY OTHER BOT RUNS RAMPANT WITHOUT REGULATION ENTIRELY IN TANDEM. Bots running under this type of service are the vast minority of bots currently being run (it's infinitely cheaper to just code and run the bots yourself if you are already this deep into crypto than to pay monthly or for a token to do so), so the issue isn't with botting services. The issue moreso lies in the fact that these services will then be used to give a "coverall excuse" for the appearance of bot numbers. Despite being responsible for a verifiably small percentage of bots.

Counterarguments, Misconceptions, and Responses

"Players need to invest to be able to earn from their play for it to be an Esport"

This is 100 percent incorrect. An Esport requires rewarding skilled play not necessarily "invested" play. To exclude without investment play is actually contrary to becoming a seriously considered Esport, if the only way to earn is to invest more it is not an Esport it is pay2win in most players eyes. Or an INVESTMENT (despite "not being one", see sections below). You already spend 10 USD to earn cards period or even have cards at all.

"But it only effects silver and bronze the most, right? Why should I worry?"

Because at whatever point you are that isn't the TIPPITY TIPPITY top of the totem pole (up in champ) you are currently part of the bot v bot win trade mechanism. Bot win trade farms have proliferated all the way up to Diamond, it is not an issue that only effects these two leagues. In fact the other day I fought against a win trade farm win trading against itself for OVER AND HOUR AND A HALF STRAIGHT (video to be uploaded) in gold.

"But I bot, you must be against me too with this. BOOOO"

This is not against botting I am against win trading via bot v bot mining farms, there is a difference. I know pandora's bot box can't really be sealed back up (not by this team logistically) since it was allowed since the start. However many consider that a mistake with the direction the game has gone and the market exploits and SPS airdrop distribution that has already occured. I am one of those people who was never really for it, anything that disinclines people to sit down and play the game is bad for the long term dynamics of gameplay.

"But they'll put it back into Splinterlands right?"

Some but only the bare minimum to maintain control and if the solution continues to be raising the bare minimum this is NOT be a sustainable long term tokenomic structure. Essentially bots will be exploiting your enjoyment of this game to yield profits on the value you put into it through your purchases of cards to play it and not even allowing that value to flow in the ecosystem the way a PLAYER of cards might. They will only put back in the bare minimum neccesary to run bots at whichever league their farm is yielding the best (Likely Silver, Gold, or Diamond).

What about the benevolent bot v bot mining whales? Are they bad too?

I know botting is a complicated and nuanced topic, there was a time players couldn't find matches and bots were running against each other infinitum. Only at that time the playerbase was so small and the cards were worth so little it "didn't matter", but now due to that allowance then the floodgates have been burst. And I hate to sound cold here, but bloodthirsty whales have deeper pockets than nice whales in the greater outside world (think coporations etc as a whole). Botting allows THOSE whales an opportunity to "bleed money" to control the in game economy AND GOVERNANCE over the foreseeable future (if SPS governance is earned in ranked battles with the current system).

Legal Notes: A few things to jot down

Link here

OWNING CARDS IS NOT OWNING CONTROL IN SPLINTERLANDS OR A PIECE OF SPLINTERLANDS. This is explicitly mentioned in the games ToS. You merely own an in game asset, that's it. They are legally responsible to give you NOTHING aside from the market to be able to sell to other players. They don't even have to necessarily have to even have the cards work properly in game technically under this ToS. However you own and have control over where to send that in game asset. That's the nearly unprecedented part, user control of in game assets without a third party market. In fact no guaranteed governance or control is mentioned to be attached to any token as far as any legally binding obligation to do so.

Excerpt from ToS below:

In fact the only people who own Splinterlands legally are the holders of Steemmonsters inc stock. Technically speaking none of this web3 governance or anything else has to be upheld, nor grants any authority in the game going forward. (excerpt below)

Oh and for any of you thinking "But wait it's not just a card game it's also an investment", I hate to show you this buuuutttttt

SPS,DEC,SPT, and everything Splinterlands are not considered an investment by the developers themselves in their ToS (to skirt legal regulations). But devs you use the words "invest in cards","invest in SPS", and "invest in Splinterlands" all the time don't they? Doesn't that sortof create a misleading image for the company when this is done repeatedly at AMAs?

Yes, yes it does.

**It turns out that it is not an investment company, and if that's the case why is it being altered to be an investment vehicle for crypto mining via bot wintrade farms at the expense of human gameplay? **

A good question. Most of these updates, and in fact the position on bots needs to change if this part of their ToS is to remain valid. Currently people can spend money to mine crypto passively with automation without actually engaging or "playing" any part of the game (all bots are third party). So technically the devs are allowing for SPL to be an investment vehicle, just saying something isn't something in your ToS doesn't make it true in a court of law if the jury deems it as a "false statement". People are using your product as an investment vehicle, treating it as an investment, and bot wintrade mining to have it earn APR as an "investment vehicle". Gameplay is sacrificed the more it is used to create APR for larger wallets that don't actually want to play the game and just want to sit there and get past BTC mining regulations elsewhere.

What about people who buy the token on an exchange and never agree to the ToS because they don't have an in game account?

Those people legally speaking are investing in what they think is an investment company. These users are also not agreeing to the predatory ToS this game has to play it. They don't play it, they may never play it. They can just keep their asset in their crypto.com or whichever wallet. THEY INVESTED IN WHAT IS VISUALLY AN INVESTMENT COMPANY EVERYWHERE YOU SEE IT ASIDE IN GAME. The way it is presented on said exchanges aswell is deliberate, it is not presented as "Not an investment in game currency for some card game" the way it's detailed in the ToS.

Just saying your company isn't an investment company doesn't make it so if you list yourself on every exchange you can from here to Timbuctoo and intentionally give off the appearance of "an investment". Many of those users never see acknowledge or agree to that ToS so the point is moot and the court would have to decide anyway in the event of any funny business.

Actually, technically, they try to skirt ALL liability for anything period earlier in the document. But you can't just say "we aren't liable" and have it be legally applicable in many places (shown below complete with their typos)

For some reason the ToS has this weird part that no other game I have ever played has ever had. (Check Hearthstone, Eternal Card Game, Gwent, Brawlhalla and EVERY other game EULA I could find even ones where you can earn money in tournaments for playing them. Even block games like Axie and Gods Unchained, so being block is certainly no excuse).

Not to mince words, but what the heck? You're signing an agreement waiving your right to trial in the event of any legal action of any kind.

That is NOT normal for a game EULA.

Now compare that to Gwents NORMAL Eula for a video game

Or even Axie Infinity's EULA

Sounds like a much more reasonable DISPUTE RESOLUTION to me.

That clause in Splinterlands doesn't look awesome to see in a video game you are supposed to "invest" in and trust. Or quite frankly, any project for that matter.

Splinterlands is still under suite, and is not immune to being sued in the future by other parties, despite what is phrased in the ToS. Legal issues are not an idle threat, despite what may or may not happen within this one instance. (To view court documents for case currently underway click here). Even if this lawsuit pans out, the issues presented in this and other sections could lead to problems down the line if left unchecked. Crypto AND game law are still being defined in many places.

What's Web 2 Gonnna think?

A web 2 gamer coming into the game is going to think or do a few things most likely.

1. They will think the player base is "players" because of the deliberate way things are worded in AMAs to not show that there are droves of bots ran by a much smaller REAL playerbase (see legal section below). UNTIL they find out on their own and then feel tricked.
2. They will think that it's an investment because every DEV, player, and crypto nut in the game calls it "Investing". But I suppose it's not right? As mentioned in the legal section.
3. They will think the market is being manipulated by "automation" for NFT cards etc. and when they realize that it centralizes the CP and cards you need to lvl to progress. They will likely be more inclined to play another competitive card game that isn't so "grey" with card progression and who progressions at the expense of others.
4. They will hear crypto and see hidden bots manipulating the market and will then call legal aide, the authority's, or even worse INDUSTRY JOURNALISM. It won't matter if they signed the slimey ToS, they will still try and it will still prompt something to happen to some degree. Keep in mind guys I'm not even digging as deep as I could've gone. If someone took the time they could tell you where all the money goes exactly. It's all immutable on the blockchain forever and can't be refuted, I'm not trying to hurt the game merely point out issues that can be present long term.
5. If the web 2 user is a web 2 dev of a competing card game they may go straight to step 4 to "clear the playing field" and then merely steal and adapt the tech once it's more universally accepted and tokenomics have been fleshed out. Yes the business world is brutal and sucks, but it's the way it is and the disadvantage of being one of the first. SPL is certainly in their vision at this point.

A Preface before reading this article: Including additional solutions

If you have any additional questions about my position or how this issue has developed consult the additional writeup here about this issue. That will clear up a few questions you might have and also present past solutions presented.

What is the intention of this article?

Many of you will be asking what is the intent of this artical? Why mention anything? Why not just be silent and watch it happen?

I am not publishing this article to motivate people to sell/buy or anything else like that. I am not publishing this to badmouth the devs, I actually think the ingame mechanics are well thought-out and show a lot of time was put into how each card interacts with EVERY other card. You don't always see that in card games. The devs are doing unprecedented stuff and trying to go about it very quickly, this article is not to blemish their character. This is merely to outline the issues with bots and the appearance of various things in SPL. This is not meant to accuse the devs of anything, merely point out potential future issues related to various aspects of SPL.

Get on with it then what is the point?

The intention of this article is to incite community discussion about this topic and present information and statistics that newer players may not be aware of or know what they mean coming in. It is also to point out a massive potential hole in the economy and for future governance, especially if the games exposure increases. Ask about it in the AMAS, and submit your solutions for this at feedback.splinterlands.com .

Potential Solution... Again

Open Source Botting: Economic stability for everyone

A lot of people see this and think "Wait he was anti-bot wasn't he?" No I'm not. I'm against win trading and market exploitation, I'm not against a bot winning against a player and being credited etc. this creates value for human play-time as oppose to purely "bottimation" and using SPL as a mining APR investment vehicle. However to acheive this botting needs to be a part of MAIN gameplay. Bots need to be a visible statistic, and the bot code itself needs to be vetted and retrieve a "null" response when fighting another bot and the fight doesn't occur. This would require the devs to add this to the game and this would also reveal to the players how minimal the manual playerbase is and how few players there actually are. This also would save face in the future, it makes botting look like something accepted by the devs and regulated. The "will they won't they" with bots combined with obvious pro massive bot win trade washing farm updates says something different. The bots running in this current manner will also keep it from being an Esport, as the complete lack of regulation disqualifies SPL in it's current state from being considered. It's play2earn, it IS NOT an Esport. An open source and verifiable bot library of code the players use IN THE MAIN GAME that is open source and proves it is not win trading solves this, otherwise SPL will not be considered an Esport.

A note about archmage: The right idea

In theory if ALL BOTS were transparent like archmage this would work, but this is EXACTLY the idea I was pitching ages. Sadly this only works (see muddling statistics section for why) if all of them are forced to use said open source bot code. In both the open source library and "what if everyone had archmage" argument it only works if non whitelisted bot code is banned and searched for to be removed. But at that point people would be making potential the same (likely more) APR from the bots winning vs players and the DEC pool not being so depleted. However this only works if players play the game. If botting is allowed to this degree forever the playerbase can dwindle and that statistic can be convertly assuaged by creating more bots.
This won't be as covert as people think, crypto continues to have greater legal regulations and those regulations will apply here. Due to the amount of money here they will certainly be motivated to spend dozens of hours digging beyond what I have done, I'm pro Splinterlands and want the game to succeed. If I wanted anything else but for SPL to be one of the top CCGs out there I wouldn't be suggesting any solutions or even trying to write something up to incite community response. I'd just be silent.

Positive Improvements Since Last Time

There is now a notice to buy packs in mobile app. Better late than never. Daily focus makes it slower and more difficult but not less profitable to bot v bot win trade. Still, this is an improvement over the previous daily quest system. New reward cards also spice up strategic variety and provide a counter to yodin in bronze league. The cardplay is fun, but botting is a major issue along with poor optics.

Gameplay Mechanics: A+

As far as cardplay is concerned, the unique strategic depth of Splinterlands is something you will not encounter in another 2d auto battler wherever you go on blockchain. Gameplaywise there are few blockchain games that can even hold a candle to Splinterlands period. However, even in the CCG general population it presents new mechanics and engaging strategy. Currently every card has it's use and every card has it's counter or counter play, there isn't any one single "Over powered" combo that just wins your way to champion league. This isn't an easy feat. In fact the gameplay loop for Splinterlands is phenomenal and only takes 3 minutes a match, very fun indeed. Many of the issues presented today in this article have nothing to do with gameplay directly, card design or new abilities and their interaction with the meta. In fact it has added a new depth of play that wasn't there before. Bravo guys, can't wait to see what happens in Riftwatchers as far as game mechanics are concerned.

If you have other solutions to this issue let your voice be heard in the AMAs and townhalss. Let your voice be heard at feedback.splinterlands.com

The Community that actively plays is lovely

You guys rock, and this game should be developed for people to play it not people to "Mine" in the background if it wants to be considered an Esport or attract newer players. The people playing and contributing and active in the community making memes about grinding the bots, about the characters, getting into the lore, or just enjoying PLAYING the game. All of you are awesome, and one of the best parts of Splinterlands and deserve even more of a shoutout than this paragraph.

Read this before commenting

Please read the entire article and the additional attached article before commenting, a lot of your question might already be answered. The giveaway this week is a guaranteed rare or better delegation for the Splinter of your choice for 15 days. Any IN DEPTH comment qualifies, no "I'm heres" or "Thanks bruh"s I want to know what you think about this. All comments welcome in this community discussion. I will answer questions asked and add a "Responses from the community" section as you guys comment. When you comment don't forget to mention your Splinter of choice for your delegation.