Given that many of these meta reports will likely fall before/after various balance updates, teasers, etc., I'll do my best to only mention tangible changes that are more likely than not to be coming. The PTR changes are not yet guaranteed, so I'm pretending they don't exist. Also, these numbers are based on past data that helps us understand what players have been using rather than what they will continue to use.
With that in mind, treat this as a history book of sorts that will help identify what direction the meta is moving. If I point out the price of a card is under/overvalued yet the real-time value is significantly different, compare the two and apply some logic. If the price is higher than what I stated was overvalued, it'll still be overvalued. If it was originally undervalued, then the market has likely shifted to compensate.
As such, @jungleboy1 and I present you the December 2021 breakdown for the Trial of the Gods set!
DECEPTION - Trial of the Gods
Blessing of Deception
Hidden is all the rage in Aggro Deception decks, but not all Hidden is created equal. While Favor is certainly quite appealing to early-game decks trying to lock their opponent out of the Sanctum, the timing for this spell is slightly off. Similar early-game spells like Dark Knives and Assassin's Aim (has Hidden!) are bound to pack a meatier punch thanks to the damage bonus. Put differently, you have too few creatures that would benefit from casting this early on.
So, we're looking at a mid-to-late-game spell you'd cast to protect your creatures from being targeted during your opponent's turn. Personally, targeted removal or Rapture Dance would likely be a better use of resources, and the drop-off in win rates at higher levels of play seem to agree. Granted, play rates are so low the numbers aren't very definitive. I'd argue the current price is fairly valued, as AoE Hidden has too many removal spells to compete with.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 52.3%
- Games Played — 308
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 43.2%
- Games Played — 44
Price — $0.62
Dream Stalker
Conditional AoE removal sounds great, but it's Sleep. Deception struggles to put together Sleep combos even inside of its own Sleep theme. You'd need to have Gorgon Gargoyle trigger or multiple single-target Sleep sources piled up in order to benefit from this, as there are better single-target removal creatures available, otherwise.
The awkwardness of Deception's Sleep theme has made it unpopular, which explains both the overall play rates and the dip in win rates (likely inflated) heading into higher levels of play. I'd also argue that the current price is what it is only because of its rarity.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 51.5%
- Games Played — 571
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.4%
- Win Rate — 47.9%
- Games Played — 163
Price — $1.68
Elixir of the Panther
Speaking of Sleep, this is part of the reason Deception struggles to make a dedicated Sleep theme: They all cost too much mana. That's not to say that this is a bad card, though. Play rates are high for a TotG card, and win rates are positive at all levels of play.
The flexibility of scooping your opponent's board or stalling for a turn fits right in with Deception themes, especially Aggro themes that want to grind down their opponents with Hidden creatures as quickly as possible. The current value seems deserved, but the CSR adjustment for Svart Basilisk (AoE Sleep removal) could undermine it down the road.
All
- Play Rate — 1.4%
- Win Rate — 52.5%
- Games Played — 1,852
Mythic
- Play Rate — 7.8%
- Win Rate — 53.1%
- Games Played — 928
Price — $5.99
Elixir of the Snake
What speaks to me most about this card is the potential for gaining a medium-level Rapture Dance and AoE +3 Strength to any friendly creatures that survive. If you're running Control Deception, sweeping the board while turning beefy defenders into heavy hitters could end games outright. You also don't need your opponent to have any creatures on the board to use this spell.
The current price seems to be chilling interest at all levels, but those that are sippin' bottles seem to be faring okay. I think $10 is a reasonable floor price, for now, given that this spell falls squarely in the "power turn" category.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 51.9%
- Games Played — 586
Mythic
- Play Rate — 2%
- Win Rate — 51%
- Games Played — 241
Price — $10.91
Eris, Queen of Chaos
Nine. Mana.
For whatever reason, a billion keywords were combined with the best milling ability in the game to create this atrociously high-costed creature that rots in a forgotten storage box somewhere in the attic. Deadly is overkill and entirely unnecessary for a creature that already has 8 strength. Dropping that, alone, could bring this down to 8 mana, and dumping Twin Strike (which only really helps Deadly) might squeeze this in at 7 mana for an end-game milling machine.
Instead, you have a mill source too expensive to use at the right time and a 9-cost creature too weak to have board presence in the late-game because it's burdened by a potent milling ability. I'm not just ranting, here, as play rates are nonexistent and win rates are subpar.
This is the cheapest TotG legendary for Deception, and even that might still be overvalued. Unless you're Death/Magic (mana ramp), 9-cost creatures can't be indecisive in their design. When they are, they fail to fulfill either of their intended roles and ultimately cost players games.
All
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 46.3%
- Games Played — 177
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 48.8%
- Games Played — 43
Price — $25.50
Fevered Dreams
This is one of thew few Sleep cards that works. Going back to Gorgon Gargoyle (or even Spellbound), this can net you 3+ cards when played at the right time. Play rates are surprisingly low for a common—as is the price—but the win rates are telling a different story.
I suspect many players skip it given the stigma against Sleep Deception, but I'd recommend anyone looking for additional synergy for their meta Sleep sources should consider 1-2 copies of this on the cheap.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 52.1%
- Games Played — 553
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.6%
- Win Rate — 55.4%
- Games Played — 184
Price — $0.50
Guild Siren
When you first read the card text, things sound pretty swell until you reach the end:
"Then, they draw a card." Guh. . .
This drawback is significant because while it can certainly mess with your opponent's plans, it doesn't generate any card advantage. Other than forcing your opponent to mulligan something you've just bounced—"meh" strategy for an early deploy—there's no real synergy beyond Cobra Scepter (opposing God takes 1 damage per Draw). Meanwhile, Ludia's Deception, a 1-cost spell, let's you pick the card your opponent redraws and lets you Draw 1.
All of this comes together to form an unpopular card that is under-performing at all levels. If Deception receives a more fleshed out milling theme, the currently undervalued price could see a bump to reflect the renewed allure of this Siren's call.
All
- Play Rate — 0.3%
- Win Rate — 48.1%
- Games Played — 401
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 44.2%
- Games Played — 52
Price — $0.33
Hierophant Silenus
On demand card duplication is really appealing, but it's random duplication; that's the rub. At this price point, there will often be higher priority cards to play. MOAR CARDS for the sake of, well, more cards isn't as effective if they aren't your cards you've built a strategy around.
Having the second lowest price among TotG legendaries says a lot about how players feel about this ability, and the win rates suggest a mediocre impact on game results. The current price is probably fairly valued, as this isn't a terrible card; it just lacks presence in the current meta.
All
- Play Rate — 0.8%
- Win Rate — 51.8%
- Games Played — 1,027
Mythic
- Play Rate — 4.3%
- Win Rate — 50.8%
- Games Played — 512
Price — $29.93
Hooded Figure
With only 3 Health, this mysterious assassin becomes extremely vulnerable after leaving the shadows without some form of external protection. Backline limits the number of threats looking for revenge, but most domains will have plenty of removal ready at this mana cost.
This weakness appears to be weighing win rates down at higher levels of play, and the current low price feels justified. It seems like this is one of those situations where a 5/4 is probably more valuable than a 6/3 with the same abilities.
All
- Play Rate — 1%
- Win Rate — 51.9%
- Games Played — 1,296
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.8%
- Win Rate — 46%
- Games Played — 215
Price — $0.39
Larcenous Pan
This one's an oddity in that play rates are abysmal, but the win rates are sampling so few games as to be unreliable. Ignoring the stats, stealing Favor could be useful if you're running enough Blessed to quickly tap into the Sanctum and lock your opponent out of it. Ludia's Dedicant, for example, is a common staple that could build off this.
The problem is a 1/3 will have a harder time reaching your opponent (or even having board presence) thanks to the aggressive, beefy meta. War, for example, would love for you to waste your time toiling away in the Sanctum while it turns your God into a helpless rag-doll.
Going largely off my own opinion, the current price seem slightly overvalued without more metrics to build on.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 55.6%
- Games Played — 468
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0%
- Win Rate — 60%
- Games Played — 5
Price — $0.64
Ludia's Deception
For one mana, you peek your opponent's hand, push something back into their deck, AND Draw 1. I honestly don't need to say much more. This spell is so cost-efficient and game defining in what it can do that I'm surprised it made it through the TotG balance waves all the way to the set locking down.
Play rates seem low, probably because Deception isn't as popular as other domains, but the win rates are the real stand out, here. At all levels of play, Ludia is making things happen. The price actually seems low for a rare card with this kind of impact, but again: Deception isn't as popular.
All
- Play Rate — 2%
- Win Rate — 58.5%
- Games Played — 2,564
Mythic
- Play Rate — 11.2%
- Win Rate — 59.3%
- Games Played — 1,328
Price — $9.63
Obsidian Dagger
Spending 3 mana to gain targeted Sleep on turn 4 isn't much to look at. Relic removal is common thanks to a relic-heavy meta, so there's a good chance this will get tossed in the bin if your opponent has the removal on hand.
The inefficiency of this dagger clearly isn't attracting many buyers, and win rates are simply poor. The current price is probably overvalued, especially when compared to something like Larcenous Pan which has situational value and a similar cost (that is also overvalued).
All
- Play Rate — 0.5%
- Win Rate — 49.4%
- Games Played — 605
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.1%
- Win Rate — 45.6%
- Games Played — 136
Price — $0.63
Orfeo, Champion of Deception
With a cost double any other TotG legendary, Orfeo has certain expectations he has to meet. Unfortunately, I don't get the appeal his abilities clearly have, as his play/win rates are among the highest in the set. I understand that he is a costless removal source, but not being able to control when he hits the board leaves too much room for counterplay for my tastes.
Stepping back a bit, my assumption is that many see value in being able to drop a 2-cost creature with difficult to avoid removal baked in. Going first would be especially strong, as you could drop Shackled Acolyte or any other Order creature knowing Orfeo will discourage your opponent from opening with their strongest play.
With all that in mind, I still think the current price is somewhat overvalued, but there are plenty that are finding success with Orfeo on their side.
All
- Play Rate — 3.4%
- Win Rate — 58.7%
- Games Played — 4,442
Mythic
- Play Rate — 21%
- Win Rate — 59.5%
- Games Played — 2,489
Price — $74.86
Orfeo's Guile
Rapture Dance + card duplication sounds real nice, doesn't it? Unfortunately, it'll smash your creatures, too. At 7-mana, I have a hard time thinking of a frequently occurring board state that would motivate you to include one copy of this in your deck, just in case.
However, if you're running Aggro Deception and aren't curving all the way up to 7-cost cards (5-6 being a common endpoint), having one copy as a backstop against board flooding from, say, Nature or War could be useful. Wiping the board to gain a hand full of cards could salvage a tenuous board state.
Play rates are decent with middling win rates, so I feel comfortable judging the current price as fairly valued.
All
- Play Rate — 1.5%
- Win Rate — 53.2%
- Games Played — 1,913
Mythic
- Play Rate — 4.9%
- Win Rate — 49.4%
- Games Played — 585
Price — $4.88
Orfeo's Mask
Let's get the win rates out of the way: They're solid, and they suggest this is a rockin' card. My issue is the play rates are low enough this might be benefiting from simply living in well-crafted decks. In other words, I'm starting off by saying I feel like this relic's value has been overstated in the numbers.
Now, why do I say that? Deception doesn't have mana ramp, so you're looking at bouncing cards no sooner than turn 6. After playing this, there is at least one turn where most relic removal can freely shove this into the Void. I frequently hold Svart Basilisk for countering late relic drops, and nearly every form of relic removal hits for 2+ durability. In other words, you're giving up playing something like Guild Enforcer to possibly bounce a creature the following turn.
If you're running hard Control Deception, however, this might fit right in given Deception doesn't have a lot of great options at 5 mana that support the theme. I can't contest the price given it's similar to other TotG legendaries, and the win rates are fairing well.
I may not be a huge fan of this relic, but there is clearly a case to be made for giving it a good look.
All
- Play Rate — 1.4%
- Win Rate — 57.6%
- Games Played — 1,842
Mythic
- Play Rate — 7.8%
- Win Rate — 58.6%
- Games Played — 926
Price — $31.73
Pan Marauder
If you're running Copycat Deception, a card mirroring theme, you need this beastie. A well-oiled card duplication deck will quickly drown you with cards you can't possibly play before your hand has filled up. When you deploy this creature, there's a very real possibility that you'll "generate" 10+ mana by reducing the cost of all your pilfered cards.
Since card duplication tends to slant towards control in order to win through card advantage, reaching 6 mana should be a consistent occurrence. While play rates are incredibly low, I'd suggest the win rates are likely only slightly lower than shown (say, mid-50's), which is still strong enough to call useful. The price is still affordable for an older epic, so I can't say that this is overvalued at all.
All
- Play Rate — 0.4%
- Win Rate — 58.7%
- Games Played — 479
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.7%
- Win Rate — 61.8%
- Games Played — 204
Price — $7.87
Port Authority
I don't understand the fascination Deception has with high-cost glass cannon creatures. 3 Health is not enough to feel comfortable dropping this on the board whenever you please. This feels like a catch-up card in terms of dealing with card disadvantage, but the copied cards may not actually help you.
This dockside bruiser is among the least popular cards in TotG, and the win rates can't be taken at face value. This card feels overvalued simply because it doesn't seem usable, a reality supported by the fact nobody seems willing to run it.
All
- Play Rate — 0.2%
- Win Rate — 52.1%
- Games Played — 315
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.1%
- Win Rate — 53.3%
- Games Played — 15
Price — $0.66
Satyr Hypnotist
When going second, EoT Sleep will help you steal tempo from your opponent. This satyr is also likely to act as a lightning rod by attracting your opponent's removal. If they're unfortunate enough not to have some on hand, you can earn some free face damage during the early-game.
Interestingly enough, win rates take a dive when entering Mythic, but not so far as to be negative. I attribute this to the 2 Health more than anything else, as there are numerous things Mythic players run that can reliably snipe this. That doesn't stop it from being the most popular TotG card in standard play, though
I can't say I support the current price—it seems moderately overvalued—but it's clearly being supported by an interest from players that haven't found a home in Mythic, yet.
All
- Play Rate — 6.6%
- Win Rate — 55.8%
- Games Played — 8,622
Mythic
- Play Rate — 20.9%
- Win Rate — 50.9%
- Games Played — 2,476
Price — $4.95
Shadow of Lethenon
This. Card. Wins. Games.
Simply put, if you don't have the right kind of removal to deal with the permanent Hidden, Deception gains a timed win condition you'll need to outpace to avoid defeat. That is why the current price is greater than half the TotG legendaries.
My worst experience with this demon kitty was as War without Auric Rush or Bar fight. I didn't have a way to splash damage onto the two copies that hit the board on turn 1, and my opponent essentially ignored me while they dealt pure face damage until they inevitably won.
Interestingly enough, the win rates imply that this win condition doesn't seem to be overwhelming enough to do anything more than grant periodic free wins that probably help maintain rank once in Mythic. In other words, simply having a pair of these will net easy wins you can faceroll your keyboard through if your opponent is unprepared.
All
- Play Rate — 3.8%
- Win Rate — 52.9%
- Games Played — 4,912
Mythic
- Play Rate — 15%
- Win Rate — 51.1%
- Games Played — 1,776
Price — $37.43
Stolen Plans
This is what gambling for second-hand goods looks like. Unless you're running Copycat Duplication (possibly not even then), there are much better options available to you. Anything that copies cards from your opponent's deck has a greater chance of yielding usable cards, as players usually try to avoid running the junk cards this spell will occasionally waste your time with.
Win rates are poor, yet somehow the current price is higher than better performing commons. I'd argue this is considerably overvalued, as there's really only one deck type that might want this, and even that's not a guarantee.
All
- Play Rate — 1%
- Win Rate — 49.2%
- Games Played — 1,351
Mythic
- Play Rate — 1.7%
- Win Rate — 44.4%
- Games Played — 198
Price — $0.67
Trial of the Shadows
While Shadow Lethenons can win games when played during the early-game, their board presence is less significant later on in a match. AoE 1 sources are more common above 6 mana, and you're really only talking about 3-6 damage the following turn if we're being practical. Shadow Matriarch is a better-timed version of this that will spit out Shadows when they're more impactful.
With shabby play rates and a poor win rate in higher levels of play, the current price feels fairly valued for something players are more likely to collect than actually use.
All
- Play Rate — 0.7%
- Win Rate — 49.3%
- Games Played — 913
Mythic
- Play Rate — 0.7%
- Win Rate — 44.6%
- Games Played — 83
Price — $1.34
RANKINGS by Category
All
Play Rate
| 1st | Satyr Hypnotist | 6.6% | 1.49 Copies in Deck | 8,622 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Shadow of Lethenon | 3.8% | 1.64 Copies in Deck | 4,912 total matches |
| 3rd | Orfeo, Champion of Deception | 3.4% | Unique | 4,442 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 20th | Port Authority | 0.2% | 1.09 Copies in Deck | 315 total matches |
| 21st | Blessing of Deception | 0.2% | 1.26 Copies in Deck | 308 total matches |
| 22nd | Eris, Queen of Chaos | 0.1% | Unique | 177 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Orfeo, Champion of Deception | 58.7% | Unique | 4,442 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Pan Marauder | 58.7% | 1.08 Copies in Deck | 479 total matches |
| 3rd | Ludia's Deception | 58.5% | N Copies in Deck | N total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 20th | Stolen Plans | 49.2% | 1.42 Copies in Deck | 1,351 total matches |
| 21st | Guild Siren | 48.1% | 1.24 Copies in Deck | 401 total matches |
| 22nd | Eris, Queen of Chaos | 46.3% | Unique | 177 total matches |
Price
| 1st | Orfeo, Champion of Deception | $74.86 | Legendary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Shadow of Lethenon | $37.43 | Rare |
| 3rd | Orfeo's Mask | $31.73 | Legendary |
| . . . | |||
| 20th | Fevered Dreams | $0.50 | Common |
| 21st | Hooded Figure | $0.39 | Common |
| 22nd | Guild Siren | $0.33 | Common |
Mythic
Play Rate
| 1st | Orfeo, Champion of Deceptino | 21% | Unique | 2,489 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Satyr Hypnotist | 20.9% | 1.49 Copies in Deck | 2,476 total matches |
| 3rd | Shadow of Lethenon | 15% | 1.64 Copies in Deck | 1,776 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 20th | Eris, Queen of Chaos | 0.4% | Unique | 43 total matches |
| 21st | Port Authority | 0.1% | 1.09 Copies in Deck | 15 total matches |
| 22nd | Larcenous Pan | 0% | 1.13 Copies in Deck | 5 total matches |
Win Rate
| 1st | Pan Marauder | 61.8% | 1.08 Copies in Deck | 204 total matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Larcenous Pan | 60% | 1.13 Copies in Deck | 5 total matches |
| 3rd | Orfeo, Champion of Deception | 59.5% | Unique | 2,489 total matches |
| . . . | ||||
| 20th | Stolen Plans | 44.4% | 1.42 Copies in Deck | 198 total matches |
| 21st | Guild Siren | 44.2% | 1.24 Copies in Deck | 52 total matches |
| 22nd | Blessing of Deception | 43.2% | 1.26 Copies in Deck | 44 total matches |
Conclusion
In summary, Orfeo, Satyr Hypnotist and Shadow of Lethenon know how to strut their stuff, but cards like Pan Marauder and Ludia's Deception have edged some of them out for top spots. Eris and and Port Authority have no friends, but even Guild Siren is experiencing the cold shoulder.
Fevered Dreams might be unfairly ignored, while Port Authority and Larcenous Pan are likely experiencing an overstated value due to shallow play rates. Even Deception's legendaries are struggling to find their footing, as most have situational value that rely on some form of preexisting advantage to be successful.
Sources
Images
https://market.x.immutable.com/
