It's been going on for a while now, but the whole world has been hoping we won't get to this point. Yet, here we are, there's war in Europe and some of our friends' life has become a living hell. I've been watching the news and also refreshing my feed to see what our friends in Kharkiv, Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine are doing. I contacted @blind-spot yesterday morning to see what's going on there as he and @priyanarc are based in Kharkiv, which is a few km from the Russian border. Also contacted my dear friend @zirochka ♥️, who's based in Kyiv as I'm worried.
The last update from our friends from Kharkiv was yesterday, while @zirochka has been reporting continuously, keeping us updated about the situation. My biggest fear is that they are going to be left without internet and then we lose contact with them.
I can't even begin to imagine what they are going through, but I'm thinking of them all the time, praying for them to stay safe and hoping this madness will be over soon and life can return to normal. (Yeah right, who am I kidding?)
The New Reality
I'm based in Romania, so basically I'm not in immediate danger for now, but only the blind and the ignorant can't see the long term consequences of these events and the possible danger we may be facing if sh*t hits the fan.
Romania shares border with Ukraine in two places, plus there's the exit to the Black Sea, which is of strategic importance in this case. So in case Ukraine is occupied by Russia, we basically are going to share those borders with Russia. There's Moldova, the 2.5m country you see on the map, which is now in a huge danger as well. Imagine if Ukraine, a country of 41m people can be occupied like it is happening now, what's going to happen to a small country like Moldova, which is smaller than Kyiv, that had around 2.9m inhabitants.
The last 24 hours has shown there's a new reality, the situation is very different from last week for example. Ukrainian citizens are seeking refuge in the neighboring countries like Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Bulgaria, fleeing Ukraine till they can.
Romania has been preparing for this, measures have been taken in case we need to host Ukrainian refugees and what was a possibility, became necessity and reality today. The media says over 10k people arrived in Romania in the last 24 hours and today their number may be higher.
What To Expect?
Europe's map is being redesigned as we speak. We don't yet know whether it is temporary or permanent, that is to be decided in the near future. Moldova is in a huge danger as well. Some of the Ukrainian are fleeing to Moldova, but what can such a small country do? How can they host so many people? Their possibilities are very limited, plus they are not a NATO member, so they may be in danger of being occupied as well, in which case most of them is going to come to Romania.
Romania has been the NATO border towards Ukraine and Moldova. NATO troupes have been constantly coming to Romania for some time now and more will come if necessary. Life in strategic areas is going to change, people will be living with army presence for awhile now and if things will get really bad, then ... I don't even want to think about that.
The Economical Impact On Romania
Romania doesn't have a strong economy compared to other EU countries, inflation has been rising slowly but steadily (not just due to the pandemic), even though the government has been trying to hide it as always. The local currency is Lei, we're not using EURO yet, but to hedge against inflation, the population prefers to hold their savings in EURO (those who are not in crypto).
I've been keeping on eye on the Lei/EURO rate for a long time and it's been clearly visible that it has been kept at the level of under 5 Lei for some time. You could see rates like 4.998 or so for months now, while prices have been rising.
Today the exchanges were exchanging Lei to EURO at the rate of 5.01 Lei, but that was just the rate listed as many did not have any EURO to sell. Who can blame them? I would not sell my EURO now either, unless there's an emergency. Looks like the predictable EURO price explosion may happen soon.
Gas prices have risen steadily and the rise is going to continue. The good news is winter is over soon, so heating will not be necessary. Heating in Romania is done mostly by gas, prices have been sky rocketing in some cities before this has happened. Imagine what's going to happen from now on. So the population is going to use less gas, but industrial users will be using the same quantity at a higher price most likely, which will reflect on the price of the final products and/or services. (40% of the gas supply has been coming from Russia).
It is foreseeable that the tourism industry will take a hit again this year, the tourist season will be non existent as who on earth would visit a country, that is at the border of a war zone.
Final Notes
Compared to Ukrainians, we are still safe for the time being, so I'm not complaining (I rarely do as it leads nowhere). I just felt like I had to write this down. I'm still optimistic but my motto is "Hope for the best and prepare for the worst." In order to do that, you have to know what's the worst case scenario.
I'd like to ask yo to support our Ukrainian users if you can. They need our support more than ever. Even if this madness ends, it's going to be tough to get back to normal, to rebuild their lives. Their Hive wallet can't be touched, no one can take their stake away.
