In the past decade, the Kremlin has done whatever it could to sow division amongst and within western countries. Unfortunately, their effort has worked disturbingly well, as more and more people have come to doubt the legitimacies of their own democracies.
Fortunately, Putin's recent actions against Ukraine seem to have almost undone the damages that decades of Russian-spread misinformation may have had on western unity. Today, the west stands more united than it ever has in most people's lifetime.
Forgetting the impact that sanctions may have on Putin and his friends, this could prove to be the unintended consequence most destructive to his ambition.
It's been fascinating to listen to the political hearings within major European countries following Putin's invasion. Political parties who normally seem to have nothing in common are suddenly all aligned in condemning Russia's offensive invasion and war crimes. Hardly any appears to object to the harsh sanctions placed on Russia, nor the decisions to provide support to the Ukrainians. The only disagreement I’ve seen so far is whether or not to also provide weapons, where some far-left parties occasionally speak against it.
But overall, people across the whole political spectrum, across all western countries, are united on the essential part: We need to work together to stop Putin.
Countries are now looking to join NATO or the EU.
The EU has made more progress in finding consensus for progressing its military and energy policy development these past two weeks than it did in the past two decades. Germany has committed itself to spend 100 billion euros on defense, taking its share of GDP up from 1,5% to well above 2%. Likewise, Germany has also forwarded its goal of becoming carbon neutral to 2035 in order to become less reliant on Russian oil and Gas.
Germany is not alone, Poland also announced this week that it will increase its military spending from 2% to 2.5%. Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre also announced yesterday that Norway will likely follow the same path. As a result, decades of NATO countries relying on American defense spending could come towards an end.
But just as important, other political parties and countries are seeing the value of NATO and EU membership, and are increasingly discussing or even making their own proposals.
I wouldn't be surprised to see either Sweden or Finland join NATO fairly soon. While fears in the past have been that doing so would provoke Russia, we're now in a place where there's hardly anything else that could be done to provoke them more. Additionally, the justification for doing so is so obvious that it would be difficult to argue against.
A new dawn on the European continent
The coming months and years are likely to be disappointing to whoever has drunk the cool-aid of Putin's propaganda, and believes that western leaders are somehow all evil. It is likely to be disappointing to those who wished for a less united and powerful west, Nato, EU, and global collaboration. As people's emotions intensify in rejecting war, dictatorship, and oppression - the ways of Putin - they are more likely to bond and seek unity in whatever opposes his world view. And we can already see this in all the demonstrations happening around the world. People want to starnd up for western democracy.
Don't get me wrong. There is plenty to criticize about the west. From the US interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. To the corrupt influence of money in politics. All of this gives good ground for criticism. But that doesn't make Putin's characterization of it as hostile to Russian security true.
Conclusion
It is very easy to be a critic. Looking at our countries the past few decades of relative peace on our continents, it has been easy to see mostly negative things. It may have taken the stark contrast of war, dictatorship, and outright fascism displayed by Putin to remind most people of how lucky we are to have the institutions, cultures, and even leaders that we have in the west.
Putin will not lose due to an invasion of his perceived enemies, because NATO and the west were never going to invade Russia. He will lose when his own people and allies crave western democracy and freedom more than his tyranny, and oppression. This is why the Russian information war has been so important to his agenda, to make the people he has control over less likely to desire something else. Ironically, this is something he will have likely accelerated with his recent actions, as people desire western values and social systems now more than ever.
And while we should never stop scrutinizing our own social infrastructures and hold those in power accountable, it should be worth pausing and appreciating how despite its many flaws it still works fantastically well.
