It's the last day of August, and what a very flat month it's been for crypto. Do not celebrate yet; the following month (September) will be filled with more tears and pain.
Nonetheless, it has not been all doom and gloom for crypto; if I recall correctly, BTC has reached a high of 64k and a low of 51k. Now, if you think it is over, buckle your seatbelts because September is approaching, and BTC may just test the 48k range.
However, in my opinion, this could be the final bleed; as we all know, the bull run begins around Q4. If September continues to be the worst month for cryptocurrency, I see no reason why history will not repeat itself with a massive bull run. Although many factors may influence how far we go, for example, BTC is expected to achieve x3 of its previous ATH, and if it does, it will be in the $170k range.
It makes sense, and if BTC eventually reaches that level, the bull run will have already been a huge success. Now the big question would be: will there be an alt season? This question has always been asked because 80% of people rely on altcoins to profit during the bull run, while the remaining 20% are most likely BTC maxis looking for long-term gains.
This is not an official stat; I just figured that with so many people panicking and so many people interested in the price of BTC, it is obvious that the alts are the true heroes of the bull market. If most alts were priced in BTC, many people would not be panicking; however, as we all know, the alts bleed even harder.
BTC deserves a lot of credit for reaching 74k this year, which is the first time this has happened in any cycle, and it makes me wonder if there are any other surprises in store for this cycle. I know that this cycle will not be as smooth as the last one, but we hope that whatever distinguishes this cycle from the previous one will not derail our expectations for the upcoming run.
However, despite issues such as Middle Eastern unrest and inflation, I believe we are more optimistic that this run will outperform the previous one.
I think these are stuffs that usually shake off weak hands from the market.
Unfortunately, September is not going to be any better; I believe we will have about 30 to 40 days before we start seeing uptrends without downtrends. Basically, all of the greens we had prior to halving have been taken away.
For more than three months, all we have had in the market has been two steps back and one step forward, and it is frustrating to see the market unable to maintain any upward momentum, but that is how it should be.
The market's script is playing out, and it will not get any easier, but congratulations if you make it through November. The reason I mentioned November is that while October may not be as reassuring, everything will eventually come around. See you on the other side.
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