2 Weeks into 2025 and the FUD is strong!! Why? Let's Look

in #hive7 days ago

Hello SPIers, The past few weeks for HIVE have been amazing but outside our bubble, the rest of the crypto market is bleeding, we're not even 2 weeks into the new year and crypto Twitter is already having a meltdown with FUD overall. Crypto Reddit is the same and there are polls out here with results showing 25-60% of voters think the bullrun is over.

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1 Smart Investor is Worth 1000 Dumb Investors

Before we start, understand the vast majority of people are idiots when it comes to investing. We dont see it on HIVE but on Twitter and Reddit, people YOLO their lifesaving into 100x leverages based on research from a Telegram group or they ALL IN on the next meme token thats 1M % going to the moon. Let me share how 1 smart investor can produce 1000 idiots.

One guy made a fortune cause he figured out that Elon Musk tweeted 6-12 times the day before he gave a strong Telsa report and only 2-4 times the day before he gave a bad Telsa sales report. The guy made a fortune over 12-18 months and then posted his results to Reddit. He said he was no longer doing the trade because this information was now public and his post was only to show off his profits for clout.

Tens of thousands have seen the post and im sure 1000's now count how many times Elon tweets the day before Telsa sales reports. They make their trades with 100% confidence, taking leverage and then get wrecked when it goes the wrong way cause 1000 others are doing the same thing. 1 guy made a fortune and 1000 got wrecked because they YOLO'd on a sure thing with no research.

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So, why the current FUD?

Last cycle, people were excited and full of energy, it was impossible to not make money during 2021 with Elon tweeting, Wallstreetsbets degens moving into crypto and Celebrities buying NFTs. Most people got a solid dose of reality in 2022 as they watched their bags drop 70-90%. This cycle, we are all exhausted from HODLing for the past 4 years and suffering from PSDT. I think most crypto holders at this point just want to dump their bags and go on vacation. We've been waiting for 2025 for what feels like an eternity and now it's here, people are looking for the exit.

People watched BTC run from $40k last year to $110k in December and now it's dropped to under $95k, they say the bullrun is over and it justifies their exiting. This might sound retarded but these are the same people that meltdown when the market drops 10%. Crypto whales with huge bags endorse the end of the bullrun to shake weak hands because they are holding USDT and waiting to pump BTC again.

Long story short
The market is not pumping and has not been for a few weeks, if there is not good news to report and FOMO, then it is bad news and FUD

2025 - 51 weeks remaining

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There is no FUD within my mind, we are near the end of the marathon that has been this cycle. It has been a hard few years for most holding crypto at a loss or even worse having to sell some are all of their crypto at a loss during the bear cycle and now watching prices are increasing and people are finally seeing their portfolios hit new time highs, they feel PSTD.

On HIVE, we're thriving at the minute but we're late to the party as most of the market already 2-5x'd in 2024 while HIVE dropped all the way until November before turning around.

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The market overall is just shaking weak hands. We've had the first sell-off at $108k and now we see a bear trap. We have a long way to go before we see Greed and Delusion. A bear trap tricks people into selling near the bottom and a bull trap tricks people into buying near the top

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I have to admit that I'm one of those 1000 dumb investors. While browsing X, I followed some "influencers" who shared tricks to profit from your unused money. Unlike 2021 where I used some of my savings, by 2024 I already had quite a bit of money from early year airdrops and NFTs. So I tried their method, but it didn't end well.

(I made a profit from NFTs because at that time I researched by myself about the types of NFTs that had the possibility of being sold at a high price. But that luck only lasted for 3 tries. As a result, I abandoned this method and followed the tricks shared by those "influencers" on X)

But after the price of HIVE has reached $0.5, I began to slowly not follow the methods shared by those "influencers" and focus on making posts on HIVE.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

We've been part of the 1000 dumb investors but if you learn from the mistake its worth it. The only trick i know that works 100% is

HODL+Time = Best ROI

They say dead investors are the best on the planet cause they never sell, haha

HODL+Time = Best ROI

  • with the right assets. It would be useless if we HODL onto assets that have poor performance

Whether it's FUD or BULLISH sentiment, I won't let those change what I'm doing.

Damn right, if you have a plan stick to it and ignore what others are doing.

It does seem like the FUD machine is grinding it's gears again. I don't think it is hitting quite as hard as it has in the past though. I think more and more people are starting to be able to see through it even if market sentiment is down.

We've deffo seen it harder, FTX was the last massive crypto FUD news. Man, I remember when mtGox happened and let me tell you, everyone thought crypto was finished. Back then mtGox did like 85% of BTC trades and the FUD made FTX look like a picnic in the park. lol. It made me quit crypto for 4 years and stack silver until I found Steemit in 2017.

I agree alot more people are seeing through it now, at least as the market matures and grows, the swings will become less.

Wow, that must have been horrible. It was way before my time in crypto. I didn't get started until late 2017.

Thank you very much for the update.

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60% on some polls thinking the bull run is over is interesting. There are certainly a lot of things at play for sure and I'm trying to quantify all of it. For one a lot of people have TikTok brain so they are onto one thing and then onto the next thing. Also large percentage pullbacks are mentally devastating dollar value wise on BTC. ETH heads are on borderline suicide watch because the price hasn't went crazy there but personally I don't think it will because so many people have moved to other chains because the gas prices were out of control.
Also sports betting in the United States has become a huge thing so I have noticed a bunch of guys getting blown up doing that instead of crypto this cycle.

Yea, TikTok brain. I saw a study that showed since 2020(covid), the number of investors aged between 20-30 years has spiked cause of apps like Robinhood, 212 trading and eToro.

ETH has been a disappointment so far and I think it is lucky to see land between $5-6k. ETH could turn into the MySpace of gas tokens if they can not sort the fee out soon.

I've seen posts about sports betting, mainly ones where people lose all their crypto or stock portfolio and then start betting to try and make back losses quickly. I guess its all gambling, crypto, stocks, sports.

Seems like anyone who built on Ethereum for the most part has had to launch their own chain or I have seen ones launch side chains on something like Aribitrum.

The guys that I have talked to on the sports betting front have typically lost big. Even if they got up a bit they gave it all back when things didn't go their way.