IPL 2024 LSG v KKR Preview - Welcome to the business end of the season

in #hive-1016908 months ago

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Ekana Stadium IPL records

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 06.49.45.png

Ekana Stadium pitch report 10 most recent IPL matches played

Team form LSG vs KKR
LSG: LWWLW
KKR: LWLWW

Recent meetings: KKR won by 8 wickets

Weather

General Forecast: Dry and Clear
Chance of dew: Low

Preview LSG vs KKR

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 09.21.25.png

Even the most ardent cricket fan and lover of the IPL will probably admit that the season is a bit longer than it really needs to be. It is therefore always good to get to this stage of the season where the result of every match matters.

This is certainly a big game and a win could go a long way towards either sides' ultimate ambition of reaching the final in a few weeks time. That ambition would be far easier to realise if these 2 sides can finish in the top 2 at the round robin stage. A win for KKR would put them in touching distance of that while an LSG victory will mean it's very open at the top.

In beating MI, KKR put in the kind of performance that suggests they have brains to match their undoubted brawn. From a very difficult position of 57 for 5 just after the completion of the powerplay, Venkatesh Iyer and Manish Pandey used all their experience and skill to guide the team to a competitive score.

While the pitch at the Wankhede was not as good for batting as it often is, the fact that KKR managed to defend 169 without Harshit Rana and without a 6th bowling option was equally impressive. While KKR have been involved in some high scoring thrillers this season, I would imagine this is the kind of hard earned win that will have really galvanised the dressing room.

Of course, there is no time for celebration with this match starting 40 hours after the last one finished. Hot, humid conditions in Mumbai will be replaced by even hotter but drier weather in Lucknow. Can KKR recover in time for this crunch match?

By comparison, LSG have had a few days off since they too beat Mumbai Indians here at the Ekana Stadium. That additional rest period plus the lack of travel could be a major factor in the outcome of this match.

So too could LSG's increasingly good record here at the Ekana Stadium in the IPL. After a bit of shaky start on some difficult pitches, LSG have lost just 2 of their last 8 IPL matches at the Ekana Stadium. Conversely, this will be the first time that KKR have played on this pitch, again suggesting a significant pre-match advantage for the home team.

What the Ekana Stadium pitch report does show is a venue where run scoring is still lower than at many other grounds used in the IPL. However, runs are coming more freely this season with the average score in 2024 up to 174 from 148 last season.

Equally of note is that the last 4 IPL matches played at the Ekana Stadium have been won by the team batting 2nd. LSG made harder work of their chase here against MI than they really needed to but won easily enough in the end. Prior to that, the other 3 victories for teams batting 2nd here have all been relatively comfortable chases.

Once again, there is not much chance of dew impacting the 2nd innings in the dry conditions in Lucknow. The recent run of 2nd innings victories instead suggests that sides are still struggling to read the Ekana pitch conditions and put up a good score to defend.

LSG KKR head to head

KKR bowling vs LSG batting

None of KKR's first choice bowling attack have played a match at the Ekana Stadium before. However, in their planning, I'd imagine that they'll want to look at the tactics that worked well on the pitch at the Wankhede on Friday night. In that match, bowling into the pitch and taking advantage of a lack of pace and a bit of variable bounce worked well. The pitch at the Ekana Stadium is likely to favour something similar.

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 07.26.32.png
KL Rahul head to head Narine

KL Rahul's ability to bat through large portions of LSG's innings here at the Ekana Stadium has been key to their recent success. The LSG captain has been dismissed just once during the powerplay in matches at the Ekana Stadium in IPL 2024 and in his 10 innings at this venue overall he has batted until at least the 13th over on 6 occasions.

The fact that he also has an excellent head to head record against Sunil Narine will also be a crucial factor in this game. If KKR can remove KL Rahul before the end of the powerplay then they can expose a few of the LSG middle order who are less capable against spin to the duel threat of Narine and Varun.

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 07.42.42.png
Stoinis head to head Varun

Marcus Stoinis has played very well for LSG this season but his vulnerability against spin, particularly early in his innings, is well documented. Fellow Aussie Ashton Turner who was drafted in as a replacement for Qunton de Kock is also far better starting when there is pace on the ball.

LSG bowling vs KKR batting

Phil Salt scored 89 from 47 balls when these 2 sides met earlier in the season. However, he's less likely to find conditions as easy to score on this pitch. In fact, the average powerplay score at the Ekana Stadium is lower than at any other venue in regular use this season and 20 runs behind Eden Gardens where the KKR top order have been particularly effective.

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 08.48.59.png
Average powerplay and death over scores at IPL stadiums last 10 matches

The last 4 games played at the Ekana Stadium have been won by the side that has scored the most runs during the powerplay. KKR certainly have the more aggressive top order and will see the powerplay as a potentially key period of the match against a Lucknow side who are scoring at 2 runs an over less than they are while the field restrictions are in place.

image.png
Average powerplay run rate IPL 2024

Manish Pandey, making his first appearance of the campaign, and Venkatesh Iyer did a good job of managing the middle over period in the win over MI and KKR will need their experienced middle order to do something similar in this match.

Screenshot 2024-05-04 at 09.19.09.png

LSG's spinners, lead by Krunal Pandya and Ravi Bishnoi have been particularly effective at restricting scoring rates at the Ekana Stadium during the middle over period. Since the IPL moved to Lucknow in 2023, LSG's slower bowlers have maintained an economy rate of 6.65 from overs 7 to 15.


All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL player head to head records
IPL player records by stadium
IPL stadium records.
Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and highlights within GIFs which are not intended to infringe copyright- read full disclaimer. Background images are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free.