We are looking at the end of jobs. I know, this is something that I keep beating the drum about.
That said, it is a crucial subject to look at. There are some predictions that knowledge work will be done in about 7 years. This means that computers will be able to do all those tasks faster, better, and cheaper than humans. What does that mean for the economy?
How does one arrive at this conclusion? People are using varied forms of analysis when it comes to framing what is about to take place. However, a lot of it boils down to the pace of automation. This is something that we can derive looking at historical trends.
To me, this is a dire situation with few discussing solutions. It seems there are two camps: UBI and stick the head in the sand.
Politicans are not mentioning this topic. Trump is out there acting like it is 1965, where millions of (human) jobs will be created by building factories within the United States. The AI race is framed as a war between the US and China, without little attention paid to the jobs that will be lost or how the economy will be reshaped.
For this reason, I highlight where I think crypto can fit into this. It might seem repetitive to regular readers but people outside of this industry need to know what is coming and, perhaps, how to defend against it.
In this article we will discuss two topics that blend together to help frame how things could be unfolding.
The Automation Cliff And The Importance of Crypto
Automation and adoption.
These are two distinct areas that do not necessarily follow the same path. When discussing automation, this means the ability to convert something from humans to machine (or computer). For the most part, it deals with technological capabilities.
Adoption is a different animal. Here is where humans enter the picture.
The progress of technology always outpaces humans embracing of it. This is because we tend to resist change. For some that is minor while others are standing in cement showes: they are not moving. In total, this generates a gap.
One key aspect is the fact that the pace of adoption is accelerating. When it comes to technologies, the time until mass adoption is diminishing. A great deal of this is due to the emergence of the digital world. Adoption can happen much quicker in the world of bits.
That said, even with physical devices we see massive progress. By now, most have seen charts like this:
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As we can see, there was a time when it took between 50-100 years before something reached mass adoption. Much of this dates back to the late 1800s or early 1900s.
Contrast that with the left side of the chart. Many of these are newer technologies and went mainstream within a couple decades. Again, we are dealing with the physical world but we see how rapidly things are moving.
This brings up two considerations:
The first deals with something like ChatGPT. When dealing with the digital world, we move from years to days.
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These are some of the household names in applications from the last 20 years. Netflix spent a portion of its early days residing in the physical, mailing at the actual DVDs. That said, we can see how ChatGPT basically went vertical.
Another consideration reverts back to the physical world. If we look at the smartphone penetrating at such a rate, what happens when we deal with humanoid robots? What does that pace look like? Could we see mass penetration in under a decade? It seems likely considering the first target is commercial applications, i.e. there is direct financial incentive to make the switch.
Of course, this is a jobs killer.
The Automation Cliff
The Automation Cliff is a charting of two potentialities of automation.
Here is what it looks like.
Source
The first is the technology-oriented approach. Notice how it is a stair-step shape. As techology advances, the automation happens in phases. Some people are affected with the machines (computers) taking on a greater portion of the workload.
Unfortunately, this ignores the human component. Since people, including executives and developers, have some level of resistance to change, the other approach is often the reality. Progress happens in the background, awaiting the time when full automation is reached. This is when C level executives realize that a complete change can occur, resulting in massive cost savings.
This is why it is shaped like a cliff. The earlier levels are not implemented, causing a tsunami.
An example of this is autonomous vehicles. We have progressed up the scale of automation. Few jobs, however, were lost to this point. In fact, in many areas of transportation there is still a shortage.
Of course, regulation enters into this. Understanding the Automation Cliff helps us to realize what will happen. One day, there will be level 5 capability and human drivers will be obsolete. Then it becomes only a question of how quickly can autonomous vehicles roll off the assembly line.
The digital world is even faster. This is why some of the forecasts that knowledge work will be automated in roughly 7 years. There is nothing physical to build (other than data centers). We get adoption rates closer to ChatGPT rather than the smartphone.
What Is The Solution?
As always, the solution is to own stake in the economic production. With most technologies we see, it is a corporate-centric environment. If you can, own stock in some of these companies. Of course, that is not possible in many situation since often we are dealing with startups. At the same time, much of the global population lacks the resources to invest.
To me, this leaves crypto and building systems on permissionless networks that allow users to get involved with having stake. Through crypto-incentive programs, the ability to accumulate assets is open to anyone. This is a major shift as compared to the exclusionary financial system we are presently dealing with.
When it comes to technology, it is crucial to financially benefit. The numbers will be enormous and each should be concerned how he or she will be involved.
Sadly, most are not even thinking about this situation.
Posted Using INLEO
