Future Jobs: Learn To Lay Pipe

in #hive-1679229 months ago

Artificial intelligence is changing everything.

We often heard people talking about how everyone should "learn to code". That is now laughable advice considering that it will not be long before the likes of ChatGPT are, at a minimum, competitive with most human programmers. The idea that coding was a way around the job destruction from technology is quickly diminishing.

Does that mean all coding jobs will go away? Of course not. In fact, not all white collar jobs are going to disappear. What is obvious is that some are going to be affected more than others. As we will see, take on that debt to get the college degree was likely a dumb move.

Pipe Laying Is Safe

If you want to give your kids good advice, tell them to become a plumber or carpenter. While society looks down upon that, these are areas, for now, that are insulated from the advancement of technology. Naturally, it is impossible to plan a career these days since 20 years means everything will be different.

Here we see the result from research done by the Pew Institute.

What is interesting is how, while many things are affected, nothing is happening in an even manner.

For this article, we will use the overall, 19%, as our baseline. Anything above that is screwed more than those below.

Here is the chart:

While there is some interesting information, scroll down to the bottom. Basically, the smarter you are, at least according to education standards, the more apt you are to get disrupted by AI.

Another way of looking at it, if your profession entails you sitting on your rear looking at a screen, you have a giant bullseye on your chest. The arrows are going to start flying at you in the next couple years.

The Solution: Laying Pipe

No, this is not some euphemism for porn. Those jobs will probably be affected by AI also.

Here we are literally referring to physically laying pipe. In other words, those blue collar jobs that society overlooks will be insulated. They are not at the top of the list for replacement.

That is why, high school grads are only going to be affected at a 12% clips, far below the overall of 19%. It is likely much of that comes from the fast food and retail sectors where automation will creep in.

When it comes to the trades, carpenters, plumbers, and electricians are protected for a while. They are going to be the ones making the money over the next 15 years. At some point they might be targeted also but it is going to take a while.

Suddenly, we could see a massive shift in society. If you will recall, these were often good positions from a societal standpoint. This might return especially as we see the economic fallout penetrate many areas.

What happens when tens of millions of white collar workers find themselves out of work. People may still believe this impossible. However, if we look at the progress of chatbots over the last 15 months, we should be well aware of the pace things are moving.

Do not believe for a second this is going to slow down. The cost of labor, in many fields, is going to plummet. When that happens, millions will lose their incomes.

Of course, due to the monopoly on the high paying jobs, as explained in The Layout For The Globalization Of Real Estate, urban areas are going to be affected the most.

This is where all the people moved to.

Disruption of Society

There is no other way to state this: we are looking at the total disruption of society due to technology.

Over the last few months, we covered a number of different areas that face disruption. All of this is going to have a sizeable impact. When we start to add it all together, and spread it over 7-10 years, we see a completely new society.

The typical responses are already taking place. The fear is starting to mount. We have many opining how horrific things are going to happen. Those who are ill-prepared are already starting to quiver.

Which will lead to the next phase: anger.

Right now, this anger is isolated to fringe groups that are marginalized. It will enter the mainstream. The attacks on robotaxis might seem laughable but they tell a much larger story.

People do not know how to handle the disruption. Quite frankly, this is a societal epidemic since few in leadership are talking about it. In the United States, we have a Senate that is populated by a bunch of fossils. I mean, seriously, these Baby Boomers won't go away.

These people have no clue what is taking place. As we move ahead at a greater pace, we will see the usual nonsense from the likes of Elizabeth Warren talking about regulation, safety of the system, and government control. The foolishness from these people is mounting.

The issue is we cannot solve a problem when most of the people involved cannot identify what it is. Trust me when I say the morons in Congress will offer no solutions that help the population. Even when they do get moving, it will be too little, too late.

As stated repeatedly, how do you replace labor income when it disappears? This is a tough question and one that I think is solved with staking income.

It is why those who are involved in Web 3.0 will end up doing okay. For all the talk about destroying cryptocurrency, it is actually the opposite.

For the rest, best learn to lay pipe.


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I don't really see AI as a big threat to coders. At least not in the near future. More just another tool to use. I suppose it could make programming more efficient thereby reducing demand but given the growth in the complexity of software I think it more likely that AI will help demand for coders to grow more slowly...maybe not even that...vs. actually reducing demand.

Right now, you still need to understand code to get ChatGPT to work right, but just give it another year or two. All you will need to know is how to generate the appropriate prompt. It’s wise to find a backup skill to learn, like something off a screen. Just saying…

I still do not think people grasp how quickly this stuff is moving. I am not a technical guy but this is the fastest I ever saw tech move.

Yeah I have seen some big improvements over the last year in some ways, but some it seems to digress, it’s a strange phenomenon, lol. But yeah, it’s coming quicker than people think. I only use the free version of ChatGPT for some thing, but can only imagine how much better the paid version is having access to the latest libraries and such.

I jumped to Gemini and it exploded.

I dont know what the paid version of Bard was like but the free version of Gemini is amazing. What is cool, with the pace, the free version will be like the paid in 6 months.

If you want speed, this this sucker out:

https://groq.com/

I’ll have to check it out. I have been busy doing more offline stuff lately and just watching for trading alerts, lol.

Hey, I may be wrong but I've worked with large software systems all my life and while AI is not my specialty, I am familiar. I just don't see prompting your way through millions of lines of code. I think it will be a great tool to make doing certain things more efficient, I think it will also be great at creating a piece of software that is very like other pieces of software up to a certain complexity, but for innovation and large complicated systems, prompting your way there is going to be harder than coding your way there for the foreseeable future. Just my opinion.

Also debugging. I would hope AI could do away with crashes but if you aren't seeing the behavior you expect or the data you expect that's going to take troubleshooting. If AI could tell you why it was wrong then it wouldn't be wrong. But it WILL be wrong sometimes. Hopefully it at least learns to generate well documented, readable code.

It's not so much that I doubt AI will have these abilities eventually, I just think that last mile is going to take a long time to get to. I'm still 20 years from retirement (or until Hive moons) and there are a lot of reasons I could lose my job. AI is not one that I fear at the moment. Current forecasts are that software jobs will grow at a rate of 22% over the next decade. That's still faster than almost everything else. AI will almost certainly replace most software engineers in the future, perhaps even in my lifetime. I just don't think it is imminent. Yes, it's moving fast now, but the more advanced it gets, the harder it will be to take that next step. For as long as humans have to still do the hardest parts, AI will just be a tool for software developers to use, not a replacement.

Maybe although the pace of things seems to disagree with you. As @logicaldude just stated, give it another year or two.

If text or image to video improves to the point where things are created simply from those media, coding takes on a different meaning.

I totally agree with you on some aspects of your writing, but I strongly believe that although white collar jobs will be affected,
not all definitely,
Example is Surgery procedure like endoscopy, tractor driving..

And most menial jobs wouldn't be taken over.
I look forward to us discussing more about this topic as I would want us to share knowledge

Did I say all white collar jobs would go away? Didnt the article say that not all coding jobs would disappear?

Plumbers and Carpenter are getting better tools every other year too. Those jobs are not as slow as they used to be. Technology is speeding up everything. Harder, faster, stronger, better even from Old Shmoes Plub-Bum Services and Co.

That is true.

@taskmaster4450le, what about Civil Engineering and those who make garments?

Do you think AI will take over building homes and making garments or we should look towards that direction too?

The physical is going to be slow than the mental. AI is moving ahead at a faster pace.

Eventually you will see that industry disrupted but it might be further down the road. Similar to the trades, they will be automated but it will be a while.

Coincidentally, today we paid a plumber $164 to fix our kitchen sink. It took him about an hour, maybe a bit less than that. Money well spent.

Last time I had an issue with my car it took 5 days. The dealership was understaffed with mechanics. They couldnt find enough people willing to work.

The dealership labor rate: $175/hr.

They probably pay decent money for the area.

Right from day one that i started following and reading your articles, it has always been of quality. Another one also have you put forth.

When it comes to the trades, carpenters, plumbers, and electricians are protected for a while. They are going to be the ones making the money over the next 15 years. At some point they might be targeted also but it is going to take a while.

Suddenly, we could see a massive shift in society. If you will recall, these were often good positions from a societal standpoint. This might return especially as we see the economic fallout penetrate many areas.

I solely believe this. Inasmuch as AI is affected many jobs already, it still haven't affected all and ofcourse it has helped in doing many jobs and works too. The above mentioned works won't be affected by AI negatively but rather positively and one can even modify his or her if doing any of the mentioned above to be a more promising one.

Please what i have a question more, What is the future of AI on jobs and innovative productions?

It wont affect all but I believe hundreds of millions globally over the next decade. AI and robotics are going to cause a major issue as industries transition.

Yes you are right, i think that there should also be a transition of skills such that the best of AI would be felt and its impact a good one.

Indeed, not a bad idea. That, and learn how to use your land to grow your own food. Even if there's no "great meltdown," homegrown food just tastes better and offers a sense of accomplishment.

=^..^=

This is what I am doing… Farming is the future!

Get you a couple robots to work the land for you.

Wanna buy them for me? 😂 That’s what 3D printers and hydroponics is all about, haha.

Machines creating machines.

What a novel idea? LOL

Actually another concept people fail to grasp. 3-D printing is slow to develop, relatively speaking, but it is another powerful tech that will converge with others.

Oh I have fallen down the 3D rabbit hole 😂

I think for now, the Medical field is the safest bet. Not because they are irreplaceable, but because they are heavily controlled. They deal with people's lives so human testing is difficult. AI have been shown to have some aptitude in diagnosis, but it is still difficult for AI to do the checks themselves. Once AI and Robotics are able to replicate complex human tasks/movements, that is when it will start to change.

It’s a safe bet for those that can stomach the work. The medical field is not for everyone though.

Oh definitely. But it is a bit of a good thing that there are more specializations in the medical field now. For those that can't stomach to see blood, there are therapy routes; speech, physical, occupational, etc.

Anything that is regulated does have a cushion.

Medical, education, and transport have a built in barrier...for a while. That will be torn down also.

I think education can be slowly automated with learning materials. If students can't understand one topic, things like chatgpt can answer their questions. For transport, I think self driving cars are really close.

Whatever the time frame on self driving cars, it will be years going through the approval process. Hell they do not even have the metrics drawn up to judge when something can be approved.

Education is being automated but the system is not. A lot of protectionism in that realm. It is regulated, government funded which means politics, and monopolitic.

I would say the university system moves a bit quicker than the primary level.

it will be years going through the approval process

Aren't there already self driving cars on the road? I've read there are uber like services where the owner isn't even in the car and there is only the passenger, I think it was Waymo.

As for education, a lot of students were forced to study at home during the pandemic. I think the system can just as easily be automated. Private schools can easily implement this early on. I remember Harvard has online courses that one can take at their leisure.

That was local approval on a geofenced technology. The NTSB has not taken it up and with good reason: the tech doesnt exist.

How long will it take before they approve it on all highways across the US? My guess is it will have to happen elsewhere first.

As for education, a lot of students were forced to study at home during the pandemic. I think the system can just as easily be automated. Private schools can easily implement this early on. I remember Harvard has online courses that one can take at their leisure.

Most education takes place below college and in the public school system. 100% the government.

And even universities have to substantiate the high costs of tuition. They cannot do that with online courses.

How long will it take before they approve it on all highways across the US? My guess is it will have to happen elsewhere first.

I'm not familiar with the geofenced technology. Is it hard to implement it nationwide? All I'm thinking is, it is already working in that location, with the speed of software improvement, it can be implemented to other locations soon.

Most education takes place below college and in the public school system. 100% the government.

I've seen government take budget cuts on education, so this will definitely help them. There are less and less teachers because of low pay, and unruly students. This can deal with the staff problems, and just have 1 teacher in a room for all subjects to deal with anything that requires human intervention.

And even universities have to substantiate the high costs of tuition. They cannot do that with online courses.

Online courses have very little cost to the university. The way it works is that those that complete it need to apply and pay for a certificate from the university. It is actually easy money for them, since they didn't have to do anything. They can keep the high costs for courses that are in demand. Major courses also need lab and practical work so they won't lose the tuition.

Going back to the basic works sounds like a good idea. There will always be demand for them and the physical aspect of it prevents AI from disrupting it any time soon. I find it very interesting that the most educated have the highest chance of been disrupted by AI.

In my opinion, the key is not to deny disruption, but to adapt to it. We must invest in education and training so that people can acquire the skills needed for the new jobs. We also need to create public policies that support workers displaced by automation.

But as you rightly point out, participation in Web 3.0 and the use of cryptocurrencies could be viable alternatives for some.

AI should not be seen as a threat, but as a tool that, with proper planning and management, can improve society and generate new opportunities for all.

What new jobs?

People presume the new jobs created will be for humans.

Just to mention a few:
Prompts engineer
AI trainer
AI-assisted healthcare workers
Natural language processing expert (existing, but improvable)

I also know of people who want to pursue careers or opportunities in computer science or artificial intelligence, which means they are willing to acquire new knowledge and skills.

My partner has been begging me to learn how to lay pipe for years. I guess maybe it is time to figure out what the hell to do with all this plumbing.

Either that are get a lot of stake in a digital ecosystem that explodes.

I know I have already experienced this. When I was out looking for a job, the only thing I could get was stocking groceries because they needed people who would show up. I tried getting jobs in tech, crypto, etc, and nothing. Even with a nearly 10 year career with Apple. Didn’t matter. All I could get was physical labor in some fashion.

This is why I am so laser focused on building this farm, and getting tech to help me like 3D printing. Kind of the best of both worlds. Farming isn’t going away and we need more small farms now than ever before. So I feel like I am on a good path.

People overlook these kind of jobs. My daughter’s BF is in school to be a mechanic. Same kind of thing. Grease monkeys aren’t going away any time soon either.

After seeing how society has gone to all these lazy ass white collar jobs that make you sit around and get fat, it will be good for people to get out and do some real work for a change!

All those with the HR and journalism degrees are going to find they have no skills the market wants.

Even sales is being automated. Look at Google. They are getting rid of most of their ad revenue department. They can let AI do it.

Customer service is even being automated for the most part. It takes an act of Congress to talk to a human anymore and even they are pretty dumb, 😂

Yeah. What most miss is we are in the very early days of this progression. Over the next few years the capabilities of this software is going to skyrocket.

You best be a brand along with your own business since platforms are going to consume a great deal. This means that many companies, and jobs with it, will go away.