It has been absolutely painful to watch. Bitcoin is dropping down to some dangerous levels. But is't not just Bitcoin and the crypto markets, the S&P 500 and other indexes are getting destroyed too. Basically all risk on assets are getting nailed.
But while there is some serious blood in the streets right now, there is a bright side to it all... This could be the sign that we are really close to the bottom. These last few attempts have seemed like a desperate push to wipe out the rest of the weak hands out of some of these markets so that the big boys can start scooping it up cheap.
Oversold Conditions For Bitcoin
So let's talk about the technicals for a second. If you look at the weekly time frame you will see that Bitcoin closed the week last week in oversold conditions for the first time since December 2018 which was the depths of the 2018 crypto winter.
The momentum is hitting some of its lowest levels and continues down. I am thinking that we will most likely in the next couple of day or at least sometime this week, see a full capitulation candle, if this doesn't turn into one.
Let's zoom in a bit to the daily time frame shall we?
When you look at the daily time frame with the volume profile turned on, you will see that the oversold conditions are still in play and we are not seeing allot of volume at these levels. This is suggesting that the sellers are coming into an exhaustion period. Somehow, they just keep finding people to sell.
Price According To The Volume Profile
The more I have been studying the volume profile and working with orderflow, the more I see that it is really the way of trading. The more I back test ideas on different time frames, the more and more I have come to love it.
The Point of Control on the daily time frame is at $39536 per BTC. This level is where the most volume has been in play in this current time zone. My hope is that Bitcoin bounces near this level, maybe even doing a liquidation wick down to the old 2018 all time highs of around 20k, and then working it's way back up to that point of control.
As you go down in time frames the levels change, but the rules stay the same, the price wants to go back to the point of control at some point. Now the really super scary part of that rule... On the weekly time frame, the POC is around $3,900... But that is according to this particular profile indicator, and it's possible that BTC doesn't have a long enough history to get an accurate reading on the volume profile. I honestly haven't looked at the weekly or monthly on my other order flow tool, which is https://exocharts.com.
The World Is Uber Bearish
For now the sentiment is absolutely in the toilet. Many are dumping at a loss and getting out, while others, like myself, are holding on for dear life to the cause, because we see the light at the end of the tunnel and are investing not only our money, but time into the future of decentralized ecosystems.
Will we continue down, maybe, but that is not stopping me from building. I hate having to cash out at these levels to pay bills, but learning that is just apart of the game. I have let some things get me down, but after some time to think and meditate, as well as some awesome positive encouragement from the community, I am picking my head up and moving forward! Those of us doing this will be victorious at the end of this dark seemingly bottomless bear cave.
Just know I am here right along with you so let's keep each other going, that is what community is supposed to be about.
Until next post everyone...
Be Cool, Be Real, and always Abide!
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