The conclusion that I've come to is that both the moon and the doom boys are wrong. The way I see it, BTC has had an unordinary bull market not respecting previous patterns(3x 2017 ATH is not your regular bull market top), thus we might experience an unordinary bear market as well.
That is true, but we probably have to get used to unordinary bull markets (at least for Bitcoin) as volatility will reduce with more adoption.
Seems like we might just be on this purple path
Anything is possible. Where is the bottom of the purple path? I can't see the numbers on the chart too well.
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it's about 22k, but it's not fixed in stone; I think somewhere above 20k should be the bottom
Previous declines have been in excess of 80% from the high.
Sub-$20k may be possible.
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that is true, but my point is that the market is getting less volatile over time in general. Having had a weak bull market might also indicate a higher low for the bear market. Time will tell :)
something like that... it is hard to predict the exact bottom; it is better to identify the pattern in which price moves :)