I think we have to stop using the moon cycle. Out of the last 10 cycles 6 of them were flipped (if anything it seems to suggest an opposite correlation - but the reality is that we are now pretty much at statistical expectation of 50%). The hype for this correlation was in spring last year and it's success was probably due to a self fulfilling prophecy. But I'll continue to monitor this connection.
There are many ways to analyze this metric.
You are doing it in the most straightforward way.
Did number go up or down during the 2-week time frame?
It gets much more tricky when you start coming at it from other angles.
For example: what's the chance the market dumps near a full moon and spikes near a new moon?
If the dump or spike that was expected hasn't happened yet, it seems to become even more likely in the days to come.
What I'm trying to say is that this is all much better for day-traders then people trying to ride the full 2-week swing cycle.
I'm expecting a dump back down to $19k within the next couple days.
I mean hopefully $20k holds but we never actually hard bounced off of $19k.