Why did Polymarket outperform the polls? The reasoning is quite simple. The media is politicized and each one serves its own interests, so its polls are also politicized. So they are not a sample of the reality of the moment and their analysis are not reliable.
At some point in the publication of polls someone thought and convinced others that their publication could influence the future vote. From that very moment, polls, far from showing the reality of each moment, are used to try to influence voters.
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So much so that in many countries they are banned days before or even a week before to avoid their influence. Personally, I do not believe that they have any influence on voters, just as celebrities who support candidates do not. But the parties seem to think that they do and that is why the media manipulate them.
Betting websites like Polymarket are not exempt from manipulation, but it will always be more difficult to manipulate something when you have to put hundreds of millions to do it. When you buy a media outlet, the return is not limited to a use case, but you receive its support every day as long as it is in the orbit of your political movement.
So the victory of Polymarket vs. polls could be simplified with the phrase "look at what I do and not what I say."
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