rose98734 in #economy • 6 days agoIs the world heading towards recession?We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…rose98734 in #economy • 24 days agoIs France in trouble?French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the chart: [source](rose98734 in #economy • 25 days agoGerman bond yields are climbingGermany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…rose98734 in #economy • 29 days agoWhich countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest hit: [source](rose98734 in #economy • last monthJapan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarterSo now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their holdings. [source](rose98734 in #economy • last monthA look at the house price crash in ChinaChina’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source Arose98734 in #economy • last monthWill Germany reform it's debt-brake?The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…rose98734 in #economy • last monthThe oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential electionHere is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support linerose98734 in #economy • last monthIs the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…rose98734 in #economy • last monthWhat does Trump's win mean for the US economy?Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the results came in:rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoUS 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024.rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoBond markets react negatively to the UK budgetThe Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoVolksWagon is in troubleVolksWagon was famously rescued by the occupying British in the post-war "British zone" in north-western Germany, and has continued uninterrrupted ever since. But the trade…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoSales of existing homes in the USA are the lowest since 1987... 37 years ago. Here is the graph: source What is causing this? Simple: many existing home owners re-mortgaged during the Covid era when mortgage rates werrose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoForeign holders dump US debtHere's the percentage share of US treasuries held by foreign investors: [source](rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoThe next US President faces a huge interest rate billInterest paid annually on the US National Debt already exceeds the defence budget. But things are about to get worse. The US tends to borrow short term (5 years or less) and a…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoDe-dollarization didn't happen, de-euroization didWhen the Ukraine war started, and Russia was removed from the SWIFT system amongst other sanctions, all the talking heads started chattering about de-dollarization. Surely Russia…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoUS Government spending is out of controlTake a look at the following chart of US Government spending as a percentage of GDP (the data goes all the way back to 1798) source Usually spending spikes durrose98734 in #gold • 2 months agoGold and inflationIt's long been known that inflation is a function of the money supply. Or more precisely, a function of the velocity of money (how fast money circulates in an economy), and the…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoThe European Central Bank cuts interest rates for the third time... even though inflation hasn't yet reached it's target of 2%. It's currently 2.1% and is likely to rise this winter because of the rising cost of electricity and natural…
