PostsCommentsrose98734 in #economy • 13 hours agoJapan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarterSo now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their holdings. [source](rose98734 in #economy • 3 days agoA look at the house price crash in ChinaChina’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source Arose98734 in #economy • 6 days agoWill Germany reform it's debt-brake?The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…rose98734 in #economy • 9 days agoThe oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential electionHere is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support linerose98734 in #economy • 13 days agoIs the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…rose98734 in #economy • 15 days agoWhat does Trump's win mean for the US economy?Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the results came in:rose98734 in #economy • 18 days agoUS 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024.rose98734 in #economy • 22 days agoBond markets react negatively to the UK budgetThe Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…rose98734 in #economy • 24 days agoVolksWagon is in troubleVolksWagon was famously rescued by the occupying British in the post-war "British zone" in north-western Germany, and has continued uninterrrupted ever since. But the trade…rose98734 in #economy • 26 days agoSales of existing homes in the USA are the lowest since 1987... 37 years ago. Here is the graph: source What is causing this? Simple: many existing home owners re-mortgaged during the Covid era when mortgage rates werrose98734 in #economy • 27 days agoForeign holders dump US debtHere's the percentage share of US treasuries held by foreign investors: [source](rose98734 in #economy • 28 days agoThe next US President faces a huge interest rate billInterest paid annually on the US National Debt already exceeds the defence budget. But things are about to get worse. The US tends to borrow short term (5 years or less) and a…rose98734 in #economy • last monthDe-dollarization didn't happen, de-euroization didWhen the Ukraine war started, and Russia was removed from the SWIFT system amongst other sanctions, all the talking heads started chattering about de-dollarization. Surely Russia…rose98734 in #economy • last monthUS Government spending is out of controlTake a look at the following chart of US Government spending as a percentage of GDP (the data goes all the way back to 1798) source Usually spending spikes durrose98734 in #gold • last monthGold and inflationIt's long been known that inflation is a function of the money supply. Or more precisely, a function of the velocity of money (how fast money circulates in an economy), and the…rose98734 in #economy • last monthThe European Central Bank cuts interest rates for the third time... even though inflation hasn't yet reached it's target of 2%. It's currently 2.1% and is likely to rise this winter because of the rising cost of electricity and natural…rose98734 in #economy • last monthThe Bank of Japan holds ¥40 trillion of ETFs on its books... the market value of which is ¥70 trillion. See the following graph: source As it exits the easy monetary policy of the last 15 years, it is likely to sell these ETrose98734 in #economy • last monthHeadline UK CPI comes in at 1.7%... but services inflation is still very strong. The following graph separates out goods inflation from services inflation: source Because the headline raterose98734 in #economy • last monthThe Fed has managed to unwind 40% of their pandemic QE40% of the Pandemic QE amounts to $1.92 Trillion. Here is the chart: source That means there is stilrose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoAmericans have stopped going to restaurantsIs this because eating out has fallen out of fashion, or is it a harbinger of something more serious? Here is a graph of the Restaurant Performance Index, compared to US Retail…
