Today I'm back with an other TA post, as usual, so let's have a look at what our dear L1 token has been doing lately and also have a look at $BTC as I know many are watching $BTC too.
I must admit, I had a look at $HIVE from time to time this week, but on low time frame and never checked high time frames. Doing it now was a bit of a shock, because of that long upper wick the monthly candle has at the time of writing. It's true that we're still at the middle of the month and there are still two weeks to go, which means time enough for anything to happen, but that upper wick does not look good. It indicates selling pressure. For bullish continuation, this month's candle has to close above $0.43, but as things look like right now, I'm not excluding a wick down to $0.22. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's going to happen, I don't want that to happen, but there's a possibility.
On the weekly time frame so far we have a bearish candle with a long upper wick. At the time of writing, there are still 12 hours till the candle close, so I can't know what's going to happen in the next half of the day, but so far it looks like we're getting a bearish engulfing candle. Even though last week price closed above the bullish fair value gap (FVG), inverting it, this week it seems like the gap can't defend price. For bullish continuation price needs to close above $0.432, which is the the top of the weekly order block.
In case this candle closes as bearish, chances are price can revisit the $0.22 area, where the bullish gap is, marked with green on my chart. Do I want to see that happen? No, I don't, but it's not up to me and I trade what the chart gives me, not my expectations.
Last Sunday and this Monday price had a nice expansion, which resulted in a gap, that was rebalanced the next day. Unfortunately it could not defend price and that gap is acting now as resistance.
I'm not a fan of counting inverted gaps, so I prefer the newly created ones, if there's any and on the daily chart, we have one. price ran into it on Thursday, but was rejected.
Today is Sunday, so there's not much volatility, this is why we have such a small candle with almost no body, but chances are for $0.2811 to be swept and if we don't get a bounce there, I'm looking at $0.2624, where we have a bullish gap that should defend price.
On a more granular scale, the h4 chart shows that price is inside a bullish fair value gap, scraping the bottom of it as we speak. For bullish continuation price needs to close above $0.3266 and hold. In case the current level is lost, I'm looking at $0.2811 to be swept, or lower, the levels I marked on the chart.
Although I'm a liquidity based trader, not a pattern trader, I can't ignore the inside bar pattern that price has printed on $BTC.
At the time of writing, $BTC is trading above the inside bar high. Should the current daily candle close above $101,998, the next liquidity pool I'm looking at is the current all time high. If that level holds, next is price discovery for $BTC, again.
Should we see a pullback on $BTC, I'm looking for $99,168 to be swept, or even lower, the levels marked on the chart.
In terms of news, next week we have a full schedule, every single day there's an announcement that can move the markets both ways. Another factor we have to take into consideration is, it's the end of the month, end of Q4, end of year as well and companies are adjusting their balance as they please. I'm talking about major players, not retail, so expect volatility.
Stay safe people, be smart and protect your capital.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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