The latest bitcoin and crypto bear market started exactly two years ago. If you open your bitcoin price chart and go back to November 10, 2021, you can see this was the day bitcoin reached its all time high of $69,000. Since then its price has been in downtrend for a while. The start of this downtrend coincides with MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee's announcement of final and binding repayment plan. After many years since MtGox was hacked and a lot of bitcoins were lost, it seemed finally the time has arrived for creditors to collect their portions of the recovered funds. Two years has passed since this announcements, and still repayments have not started yet. MtGox Rehabilitation Trustee changed the deadline multiple times. Now again this deadline has been pushed to next year. The last deadline was October 31, 2023. Now this deadline is changed to October 31, 2024. Feel free to read the Notice Concerning Change of Repayment Deadlines yourself.
The treason the Trustee provides for pushing the deadline again has to do with collecting the information from creditors, confirmation of the information, and partnering with banks and payments systems. All of these challenges were known to the Trustee before, and Trustee decided on deadlines in the past knowing these steps already. Nothing really has changed. But it is clearly that Trustee has realized they need more time to complete all repayments. It seems like they had difficulty with collecting correct information, and confirming them. Especially because some of the creditors are no longer the original users of MtGox, but rather those who have obtained the rights to claim the repayments from original users.
While the Trustee is extending the deadline, they also intend to start repayments to creditors who have already provided necessary information as early as the end of this year. Rehabilitation Trustee holds significant amounts of bitcoin and bitcoin cash. Last time I checked I believe it was about 140k each. One of the worries was MtGox repayments would cause massive amounts of bitcoins to enter the market and bring the price down. This time though it doesn't seem like selling 100k would make a huge impact, as the demand for bitcoin continues to grow with the anticipation of spot ETF approvals and halving events in a few months. Also, it doesn't seem like MtGox bitcoins will be sold in the market, at least not right away and at least not all of them. Some of the creditors seems to be investors in bitcoin and may have long term goals. Even though some may choose to see it wouldn't be all at once. Repayment process itself will take about a year.
Another reason this shouldn't result in massive bitcoin sales in the market is there are multiple options for the repayment plan. There is base repayment, early lump-sum repayment, and intermediate repayment options. The Trustee has previously outlined that creditors may choose to receive repayments in fully cash/fiat or potion of repayments in bitcoin and/or bitcoin cash. While the Trustee holds about 140k bitcoin and bitcoin cash, they also hold some fiat from the sale of bitcoins in 2018, I think. They did sell significant amount back then, that too I think didn't help the bitcoin price and it may have actually caused the bear market that time. It is not clear if all of this cash is still intact.
Last time I wrote about MtGox Trustee and their repayment plan, I didn't believe they would actually be able to repay all creditors in 2023, despite all the deadlines were for 2023. It does seem like I was right, and repayment process will definitely take the entire year of 2024. That is if they actually start the repayments at the end of 2023. At this point we can't trust the Trustee's plans, as they continue to change. Hopefully, all the the creditors will get their funds soon. As time goes by, MtGox bitcoins continue becoming irrelevant or less significant to move the prices. Perhaps these delays were are good thing for creditors, and they may end up receiving their repayments when bitcoin prices are high, and hopefully the uptrend will continue.
Last two years have not been the greatest for bitcoin and crypto prices. However, what they have been great for bitcoin and crypto fundamentals. The decentralized networks are growing, more and more decentralized solutions are emerging, the blockchain technologies are becoming more resilient, the industry has been maturing. There were bad experiences like Terra Luna collapse, crypto lending firms going bankrupt, FTX fraud and collapse, etc. These are all in the past, the crypto community learned a lot from these experiences and they just make people more educated and informed, and make decentralized efforts stronger.
Open systems and networks continue to grow and develop decentralized solutions. There are plenty of examples. One of the best that deserve everybody's attention is the Speak Network. The solutions they have been building are just amazing. Yesterday I watched the SPK Network Fireside Chat at HiveFest, and what they have been building is mind-blowing. @starketz, @theycallmedan, @nathansenn, @vaultec, and @disregardfiat discuss how it all started with Speak Network, and what they have been building together, and how far they have come achieving these decentralized solutions. While Speak Network is an extension of Hive network, these builders are thinking beyond only Hive network and trying to create solutions that work among all decentralized solutions. I highly recommend watching the entire discussion. It is very informative of what has been going on behind the scenes of building amazing solutions that will benefit Hive, and everybody else.
The Speak Network is only one example of building decentralized solutions. There are plenty in Hive, bitcoin, and other networks. While last couple of years can be considered a bear market, the growth and accomplishments are massive bull market. Which can only mean the next bull market will be even more interesting, because technology and ideas supporting these decentralization efforts is much stronger than it was two years ago.
We have seen great turn in price trend in recent weeks. Bitcoin is doing great, altcoins doing great, Hive is doing awesome. If this is just the beginning, I can just wonder what will come next. 2024 is setting up to be a great year for bitcoin, Hive and other decentralized networks. This time it won't only be about prices. This time the technology will have be wider impact, more people will embrace decentralized alternatives, more people will benefit from them, and things will continue to improve towards better.
