End of the season Glint spending and basic math - statistics and probablities

in #splinterlands2 months ago

Motto: And now that you do not need to be perfect, you can be good.
(John Steinbeck)

Ended up with 200K Glint at the end of the season, as I was mostly out on holiday and did not have enough time to buy stuff. How did I use it?

Starting with 30 Ultimate chests, hoping for a Legendary. Did not happened. What I got instead: 19 Energy, bringing another 60K Glint after I used them for the matches. Another 75K Glint to account for it, with 2 Epic cards (15K), 7 Rare (5250), 75 Common, 5 of them Gold (15K), 6000 Merits (10K), and Potions, so, this is accounting for another 45K, a loss of 30K on buying 30 Ultimate chests. Learn from this!

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Next, 400 Common cards, resulting on an average of level 6/10 right now (2 of them are already level 7).

Next, 98 Minor chests, to see if I get some better cards in there, for 20K, with 8 Energy (20K), 28 Common cards (5600), 3 of them Gold, 5 Rare (3750), 1800 Merits (5K) and some potions. A profit of 14K Glint on these ones.

Another 100 Minor chests, for 20K, with 10 Energy (28K), 26 Common cards, 2 of them Gold (5400), 5 Rare (3750), 2000 Merits (2K) and potions, with a 19K Glint extra value.

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I got for 4 more Rare with the rest of Glint, and 8K Merits, with a 24K Merits in total, in the ends. What did I got in 12 Gladiators packs? In 60 packs, this time I got a Legendary Tatiana, 5 Epics, 16 Rare end the rest were Common. Some nice upgrades in here.

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And with this one, I finished. I only need to buy all Minor chests and then Rare cards for now.

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At least you got some merits, I see those chest as major gamble that might pay off. Why didn't you get any Legendaries?

I start with the cheaper, common, already level 5-6. all max level, then rare and so on. If I get a legendary that is already max up I lose 45K glint, while common is only 150.