The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation (Appendices, End Notes, and References)

Below are the appendices, end notes, and references for the paper The Bruce Highway Action Plan Program Evaluation.

Appendix A

Table 9: Results of BHAP Capacity Projects Evaluated with CARP

Project	Funding	Project Name	NPV ($)	BCR
C1	BHAP	Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St	-77,213,044	0.03
C3	NB2	Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd	45,820,000	2
C4	BHAP	Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication	-156,797,288	0.48
C11	BHAP	Townsville Northern Access – Intersections	-25,251,631	0.34
C13	NB2	MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection	24,411,154	2
C16	BHAP	Bowen Intersection Upgrade	-25,713,888	0.04
C19	BHAP	Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade	6,000,000	2.2
C20	BHAP	Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2	-30,352,887	0.24
C21	NB2	Mackay Northern Access Upgrade	12,370,545	1.12
C23	NB2	Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2	13,610,000	2.4
C24b	BHAP	Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction	606,633,413	2.35
C26	BHAP	Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication	-218,508,625	0.44
C27	BHAP	Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade	-15,145,614	0.43
C28	BHAP	Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication	-191,770,422	0.34
C29	NB2	Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd	-4,515,257	0.69
C30	BHAP	Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2	-80,876,381	0.15
C31	BHAP	Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1	-72,730,761	0.04
C32	BHAP	Rockhampton Intersection upgrades	-19,097,193	0.59
C42	BHAP	Tinana Interchange	23,851,426	1.48
C43	BHAP	Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built)	-44,268,686	0.11
C43	BHAP	Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built)	-39,240,964	0.22
C44	BHAP	Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built)	-112,261,525	0.12
C45/C46	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2)	-505,185,103	0.75
C47	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built)	376,668,653	1.63
C47	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built)	346,013,096	1.58
C49	NB2	Cooroy to Curra - Section A	-124,540,496	0.84
C50	BHAP	Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2	-43,642,984	0.79
C51	BHAP	Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 – 4)	-1,408,359,418	0.25
C53	BHAP	Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade	-2,788,076	0.97
C54	NB2	Managed Motorways - Gateway Motorway	370,704,869	2.72
--	--	Total	-1,765,183,215	0.78

Source: TMR 2013	-

Table 10: Results of BHAP Flood Immunity Projects Evaluated with CARP

Project	Funding	Project Name	NPV ($)	BCR
F3	BHAP	Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily	-26,644,493	0.65
F4	BHAP	Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation	-702,502,989	0.11
F4/F5	BHAP	Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell	-763,858,109	0.18
F5	NB2	Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade	-109,714,804	0.21
F6	BHAP	Haughton River Upgrade	-397,283,384	0.11
F8	BHAP	Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2	-377,662,248	0.74
F9	NB2	Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade	-43,725,950	0.09
F10	NB2	Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade	-70,035,637	0.07
F11	BHAP	Goorganga Plains Upgrade – Preserve	-304,170,956	0.07
F12	BHAP	Jumper Creek Upgrade	-9,116,930 0.37
F13	NB2	Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade	-149,309,621	0.49
F14	BHAP	Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade	-44,566,698	0.16
F15	BHAP	Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade	-38,291,244	0.25
F16	BHAP	Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades	240,839,436 6.20
--	--	Total	- 1,983,825,834	0.49

Source: TMR [2]	-

Appendix B

Table 11: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Capacity Projects)

Project	Type	Project Name	Capital Cost ($)	Estimate Stage
C1	BHAP	Cairns SAC Stage 3 – Kate St to Aumuller St	80,000,000	P90
C3	NB2	Cairns SAC Stage 2 – Robert Rd to Foster Rd	58,000,000	P90
C4	BHAP	Edmonton to Gordonvale Duplication	300,000,000	P90
C11	BHAP	Townsville Northern Access – Intersections	30,000,000	Other
C13	NB2	MacArthur & Melton Black Drives Intersection	26,000,000	P50
C16	BHAP	Bowen Intersection Upgrade	20,000,000	Other
C19	BHAP	Knobels Rd Intersection Upgrade	5,000,000	Planning
C20	BHAP	Mackay Northern Access Upgrade - Stage 2	40,000,000	Other
C21	NB2	Mackay Northern Access Upgrade	80,000,000	Other
C23	NB2	Mackay Intersection Upgrades Stage 2	9,000,000	Other
C24b	BHAP	Mackay Ring Road Stage 1 Construction	450,000,000	Planning
C26	BHAP	Hay Point Road to Mackay Duplication	390,000,000	Strategic
C27	BHAP	Hay Point Road Intersection Upgrade	20,000,000	Strategic
C28	BHAP	Sarina to Hay Point Road Duplication	290,000,000	Other
C29	NB2	Sarina Northern Access Upgrade - Coast Rd	11,000,000	Other
C30	BHAP	Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S2	95,000,000	Unit Rates
C31	BHAP	Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade - S1	75,000,000	Unit Rates
C32	BHAP	Rockhampton Intersection upgrades	30,000,000	Strategic
C42	BHAP	Tinana Interchange	50,000,000	Other
C43	BHAP	Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 built)	50,000,000	Other
C44	BHAP	Wide Bay Highway Intersection (C45 not built)	110,000,000	Other
C45/C46	BHAP	Gympie Northern Approach Intersection Upgrades (Section D built)	2,050,000,000	Concept
C47	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section D (Stages 1 & 2)	600,000,000	Concept
C49	NB2	Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D built)	790,000,000	Concept
C50	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section C (Section D not built)	209,000,000	Unit Rates
C51	BHAP	Cooroy to Curra - Section A	1,875,000,000	Prelim
C53	BHAP	Maroochydore Road Interchange Upgrade - Stages 1 & 2	110,000,000	Prelim
C54	NB2	Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway - Stage 4 (Stages 1 - 4)	215,000,000	Strategic

Source: TMR [27]	-

Table 12: Capital Costs and Estimate Stage (Flood Immunity Projects)

Project	Funding	Project Name	Capital Cost ($)	Estimate Stage
F3	BHAP	Meunga/Sunbeam/Lily	80,000,000	Concept
F4	BHAP	Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation	810,000,000	PPR
F4/F5	BHAP	Cattle/Ingham/Cardwell	145,000,000	PPR/Concept
F5	NB2	Cattle and Frances Creek Upgrade	955,000,000	Concept
F6	BHAP	Haughton River Upgrade	460,000,000	Tender
F8	BHAP	Burdekin Deviation Stages 1 and 2	1,430,000,000	Prelim
F9	NB2	Yellow Gin Creek Upgrade	49,000,000	Prelim
F10	NB2	Sandy Gully Bridge Upgrade	80,000,000	P90
F11	BHAP	Goorganga Plains Upgrade - Preserve	340,000,000	PPR
F12	BHAP	Jumper Creek Upgrade	15,000,000	Prelim
F13	NB2	Yeppen Floodplain South Upgrade	296,000,000	Prelim
F14	BHAP	Currajong Creek Bridge Upgrade	55,000,000	P90
F15	BHAP	Saltwater Creek Bridge Upgrade	52,000,000	Strategic
F16	BHAP	Tiaro Flood Immunity Upgrades	60,000,000	Strategic

Source: TMR[28]	-

Appendix C

Figure 1: Map of the Bruce Highway and Proposed Projects

Source: TMR [2]

End Notes

---

1. Appendix C contains a map of the Bruce Highway, which includes the locations of all the BHAP projects.
2. BHAP is referred to as both the funding body as well as the strategic action plan that encapsulates the NBP1, NB2 and BHAP funded projects.
3. MRS defines the number of carriageways, seal width and accident rate for a specific road type (TMR 2011a)[8]
4. Projects may have been ranked prior to the CBA using alternative methods such as multi-criteria analysis.
5. The BCR has been presented in the BHAP report rather than the NBIR as the BCR was stated as the requirement from the TMR BHAP committee.
6. Although this assumption is unrealistic, in order to compare project results, all projects need to be evaluated over the same period.
7. Chartview is an ARMIS database containing road characteristics and traffic data.
8. Q50 Bridge is built to a standard where it will only flood during a 50-year or worse flood event.
9. Maintenance costs are based on information provided by the Regions.
10. Projects are recommended based on obtaining a BCR above one for the Flood Immunity Program of Works rather than each project achieving a BCR above one.
11. SIDRA Intersection is a well-known software package used worldwide for intersection capacity, level of service and performance analysis by traffic design, operations and planning professionals [21].
12. VOC have been calculated within CARP as the SIDRA fuel consumption data was not provided with the other SIDRA data, which was recorded in a spreadsheet.
13. ‘Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) cover any technology applied to transport and infrastructure to transfer information between systems for improved safety, productivity and environmental performance’ [22].
14. The upstream area is the section of road immediately preceding the overtaking lane [8].
15. The downstream area of the overtaking lane is the section of road immediately following the overtaking lane [8].
16. The results covered in this section are just a broad overview of the program. A detailed discussion of the benefit and cost streams of each project or even the program as a whole would require another paper. The TMR BHAP report contains more information regarding the results.
17. Maintaining a program NPV of greater than one is important to demonstrate the overall viability of the program form a strategic approach even though the benefits of some of the projects are understated.
18. P50 estimate is an estimate with a 50% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].
19. P90 estimate is an estimate with a 90% confidence of not being exceeded at project completion, while not being conservative [25].

References

---

[1] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan “Out of the Crisis”, Queensland Government

[2] Transport and Main Roads (2013), Benefit Cost Analysis – Bruce Highway Action Plan Economic Evaluation, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)

[3] Nemhauser, G. L. and Ullmann, Z. (1969), Discrete Dynamic Programming and Capital Allocation, Management Science, 15, (9), 494-505

[4] Gear, T. E. and Cowie, G. C. (1980), A Note on Modeling Project Interdependence in Research and Development, Decision Science, 11, 738-748

[5] Fox, G. E., Baker, N. R. and Bryant, L. J. (1984), Economic Models for R&D Project Selection in the Presence of Project Interactions, Management Science, 30, 890-902

[6] Tao, X. and Schonfeld, P. (2006), Selection and Scheduling of Interdependent Transportation Projects with Island Models, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1981, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 133-141

[7] Davies, W. (2012), Road Program Evaluation: Assessing the Bigger Picture, 25th ARRB Conference

[8] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Cost-benefit Analysis Manual: Road Projects, Queensland Government, Brisbane

[9] Austroads (2005), Economic Evaluation of Road Infrastructure Investment Proposals: Harmonisation of Non-Urban Road User Cost Models, Austroads, AP-R264/05

[10] Austroads (2001), Economic Evaluation of Road Investment Proposals: Improved Predictions Model for Road Crash Savings, Austroads, AP-R184

[11] Road Transport Authority (2004), Accident Reduction Guide, NSW Government

[12] Austroads (2012), Guide to Project Evaluation – Part 4: Project Evaluation Data (Updated Road User Effects Unit Values), Austroads

[13] Austroads (1996), Benefit Cost Analysis Manual, Austroads, Sydney

[14] Australian Transport Council (2006): National Guidelines for Transport Systems Management in Australia, 5 Background material, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra

[15] Campbell, H. F. and Brown, R. P. C., (2007), Benefit-Cost Analysis Financial and Economic Appraisal Using Spreadsheets, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

[16] Davies, W. (2011), Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland, Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011

[17] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Upgrade (Cooroy to Curra), Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[18] Transport and Main Roads (2011), Boundary Road Interchange Upgrade, Queensland Government

[19] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Highway Action Plan – Project Descriptions, Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[20] Transport and Main Roads (2010), National Managed Motorways Discussion Paper, Queensland Government (Unpublished)

[21] VIASTRADA (2008), SIDRA Solutions, VIASTRADA LTD, available at http://viastrada.co.nz, accessed 27/05/2013

[22] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), Intelligent Transport Systems, Australian Government, available at www.infrastructure.gov.au, accessed 27/05/2013

[23] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Bruce Widening, Queensland Government, Brisbane (Unpublished)

[24] Department of Infrastructure and Transport (2013), A Ten Year Plan for a Better, Safer Bruce Highway, Australian Government

[25] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Project Cost Estimating Manual Fifth Edition, Queensland Government

[26] Miller, E. M. (2005), The Cutoff Benefit-Cost Ratio Should Exceed One.: An article from:
Engineering Economist, Institute of Industrial Engineers.

[27] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Capacity Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)

[28] Transport and Main Roads (2012), Flooding Projects – 20120829, Queensland Government (Unpublished Spreadsheet)