Argentina's plan to dollarize the economy

in #economylast year

So Argentina has elected a new President; the chain-saw wielding Javier Milei.

Argentina has been suffering inflation of over 125% and the Argentinian peso is almost worthless. Such is their desperation, that the black market cheered Milei's election, and the black market peso soared 18%. See the following chart:


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The problem with the dollarisation plan, is that Argentina doesn't have many dollars in it's reserves. And it's running a large trade deficit, so it isn't able to earn dollars.

One way to reduce the trade deficit is to reduce demand and stop Argentinians buying so much imported stuff. And the way to do that is austerity and laying off govt staff. Hence the chainsaw. No Argentinian can say they didn't know what was coming, because he waved a chain-saw at them at rallies.

The other way to earn dollars, is to sell mining rights licences to international investors. Expect to see a lot of this.

If I was him I'd legalise bitcoin and stablecoins and made them legal tender. Stablecoins in particular would be a good way to dollarise Argentina organically.

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Milei is facing an uphill battle, hopefully he'll be able to get the private market into gear. The dollarization isn't a long term solution. Protecting the right of the people to issue notes and crypto is essential while getting rid of all unnecessary taxes.

Cutting tax will increase demand and stimulate inflation further. He can't cut tax till after he has crushed inflation.


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